{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef47fca3-1d7b-4d44-b498-0873177d088d", "symbol": "NWL", "name": "NewPrinces S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.109, "architecture_energy": 17.635, "architecture_maturity": 81.805, "architecture_confidence": 70.047, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.52, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 18.5, "deceleration": 45.48, "rotation_down": 23.69, "downward_expansion": 54.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.178667, 16.047818, 16.094524, 16.605462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.280001, "trend_reference": 17.435667, "distance_from_trend": -0.066282, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.661731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.692056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196049, "excess_performance": -0.366941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066282, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19165, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096911, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276921, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006992, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196049, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.818393, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 328176, "relative_activity": 0.474961, "balance": 0.818393, "dry_up": 0.581245, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053345, "annualized_volatility": 0.46986, "from_high_reference": -0.377438, "from_low_reference": 0.16954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.435667, "fair_value_reference": 13.661731, "structural_low": 13.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.016949, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.01022, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.350993, "worst_return": -0.130435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.043837, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.018034, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.953642, "worst_return": -0.170475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.088415, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.044428, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.874172, "worst_return": -0.209866, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030844, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145763, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.212644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170414, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.124731, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.86, "volume": 28279, "typical_volume": 322200.5, "trend": 5.499667, "fair_value": 5.801827, "relative_strength": 3.47376, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", 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"volume": 502224, "typical_volume": 736773.9, "trend": 17.654333, "fair_value": 13.531539, "relative_strength": -29.064264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.799093, "energy": 25.064809, "activity_lines": [ 16.174667, 15.887454, 16.151476, 16.786495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.1, "volume": 371636, "typical_volume": 712819.75, "trend": 17.531667, "fair_value": 13.595641, "relative_strength": -27.279915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.643315, "energy": 19.26053, "activity_lines": [ 16.173333, 15.954727, 16.108667, 16.686215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.280001, "volume": 328176, "typical_volume": 690953.35, "trend": 17.435667, "fair_value": 13.661731, "relative_strength": -27.692056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.108673, "energy": 17.634744, "activity_lines": [ 16.178667, 16.047818, 16.094524, 16.605462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }