{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef4c035b-44bb-414d-bfdb-21633e1da884", "symbol": "SNGX", "name": "Soligenix Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.828, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.354, "architecture_energy": 62.113, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.742, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 29.2, "upward_expansion": 14.24, "deceleration": 41.93, "rotation_down": 45.81, "downward_expansion": 85.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.376527, 0.381922, 0.469509, 0.616079 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.3921, "trend_reference": 0.8138, "distance_from_trend": -0.518186, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.956113, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.900888, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -73.871193, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.653009, "excess_performance": -0.840462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.518186, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.302617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.900888, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038435, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.738712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111334, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.653009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.017072, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 875178, "relative_activity": 0.03637, "balance": 8.017072, "dry_up": 0.061837, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.353834, "annualized_volatility": 2.554791, "from_high_reference": -0.937062, "from_low_reference": 0.400357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8138, "fair_value_reference": 3.956113, "structural_low": 0.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.070106, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.06596, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.283465, "worst_return": -0.738393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.219858, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.204836, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.640212, "worst_return": -0.755556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.384194, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.431637, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.05866, "worst_return": -0.926984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.214167, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047656, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.394428, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146907, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.60597, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.276722, "energy": 51.293779, "activity_lines": [ 0.37434, 0.417916, 0.559845, 0.713042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3713, "volume": 1535053, "typical_volume": 24026910.0, "trend": 0.8806, "fair_value": 4.065162, "relative_strength": -75.855427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.480496, "energy": 48.261893, "activity_lines": [ 0.370413, 0.40454, 0.525032, 0.678036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3739, "volume": 1446907, "typical_volume": 24054605.85, "trend": 0.84573, "fair_value": 4.0096, "relative_strength": -74.868409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.856386, "energy": 70.473172, "activity_lines": [ 0.369233, 0.391429, 0.494365, 0.645346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3921, "volume": 875178, "typical_volume": 24063115.05, "trend": 0.8138, "fair_value": 3.956113, "relative_strength": -73.871193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.353742, "energy": 62.112503, "activity_lines": [ 0.376527, 0.381922, 0.469509, 0.616079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }