{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef4cfd9b-655a-4c3d-aa85-aa2a7f1f9f02", "symbol": "605011", "name": "Hangzhou Cogeneration Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.822, "architecture_energy": 27.024, "architecture_maturity": 60.453, "architecture_confidence": 82.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.8, "rotation_up": 24.07, "upward_expansion": 15.07, "deceleration": 46.73, "rotation_down": 35.11, "downward_expansion": 62.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.472667, 17.316182, 18.458596, 19.047639 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.540001, "trend_reference": 19.693856, "distance_from_trend": -0.109367, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.511336, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220837, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.631615, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141808, "excess_performance": -0.098604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109367, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220837, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15698, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067654, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141808, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.735375, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31379493, "relative_activity": 1.016398, "balance": 0.735375, "dry_up": 1.650823, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117813, "annualized_volatility": 0.470758, "from_high_reference": -0.261271, "from_low_reference": 0.135275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.693856, "fair_value_reference": 22.511336, "structural_low": 15.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.041648, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002391, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.227365, "worst_return": -0.111539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014379, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021671, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.446592, "worst_return": -0.243846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.093846, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037161, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.125126, "worst_return": -0.061338, "sufficient": false 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"gate": "down", "direction": -61.770702, "energy": 65.741666, "activity_lines": [ 17.194666, 17.934764, 19.083793, 19.53829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.860001, "volume": 99223477, "typical_volume": 30535172.1, "trend": 19.870803, "fair_value": 22.709613, "relative_strength": -15.332441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.232837, "energy": 43.920452, "activity_lines": [ 17.164667, 17.548381, 18.810068, 19.337205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.629999, "volume": 39328985, "typical_volume": 30699410.25, "trend": 19.78748, "fair_value": 22.595529, "relative_strength": -11.332701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.724908, "energy": 32.823009, "activity_lines": [ 17.405333, 17.4, 18.630414, 19.192638 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.540001, "volume": 31379493, "typical_volume": 30873246.65, "trend": 19.693856, "fair_value": 22.511336, "relative_strength": -13.631615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.822419, "energy": 27.024375, "activity_lines": [ 17.472667, 17.316182, 18.458596, 19.047639 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }