{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef509778-9856-49ab-a5a5-b37d54ccaf11", "symbol": "IIIV", "name": "i3 Verticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.714, "architecture_energy": 48.171, "architecture_maturity": 78.862, "architecture_confidence": 88.321, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.74, "rotation_up": 17.29, "upward_expansion": 9.68, "deceleration": 39.75, "rotation_down": 58.17, "downward_expansion": 78.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.640667, 20.198182, 20.437905, 20.844968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.47, "trend_reference": 21.456, "distance_from_trend": -0.185776, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.491058, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.714893, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166905, "excess_performance": -0.354359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185776, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079774, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146049, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.387149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166905, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.857743, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3033930, "relative_activity": 1.61819, "balance": 0.857743, "dry_up": 0.902572, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124851, "annualized_volatility": 0.44, "from_high_reference": -0.485723, "from_low_reference": 0.025837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.456, "fair_value_reference": 23.491058, "structural_low": 17.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.002052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005331, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.170802, "worst_return": -0.141406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01717, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.045546, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.191521, "worst_return": -0.181684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.067304, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.184803, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.225935, "worst_return": -0.146216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170446, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 21.03, "volume": 1313233, "typical_volume": 1859608.65, "trend": 22.3, "fair_value": 23.604647, "relative_strength": -29.705294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.074384, "energy": 15.570228, "activity_lines": [ 21.069333, 20.674364, 20.95381, 21.407118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.71, "volume": 1013967, "typical_volume": 1828346.9, "trend": 22.127, "fair_value": 23.577981, "relative_strength": -27.041683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.919417, "energy": 16.062185, "activity_lines": [ 21.009333, 20.721091, 20.889619, 21.304538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.19, "volume": 1180743, "typical_volume": 1793416.7, "trend": 21.928, "fair_value": 23.549904, "relative_strength": -26.985904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.916723, "energy": 15.559208, "activity_lines": [ 20.77, 20.681091, 20.783857, 21.17957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.06, "volume": 1540255, "typical_volume": 1808614.7, "trend": 21.788333, "fair_value": 23.530737, "relative_strength": -23.523432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.880469, "energy": 14.534208, "activity_lines": [ 20.796, 20.775455, 20.776762, 21.12357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.47, "volume": 3033930, "typical_volume": 1874891.05, "trend": 21.456, "fair_value": 23.491058, "relative_strength": -38.714893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.714378, "energy": 48.171141, "activity_lines": [ 19.640667, 20.198182, 20.437905, 20.844968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }