{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef69291e-6902-4a04-aa7c-347b6110f0ca", "symbol": "SAPN", "name": "SAP SE", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.13, "architecture_energy": 25.604, "architecture_maturity": 39.787, "architecture_confidence": 43.495, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.26, "rotation_up": 47.74, "upward_expansion": 28.34, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 17.39, "downward_expansion": 53.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 3107.00669, 2951.151829, 2954.708118, 3022.060091 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3485.0, "trend_reference": 3175.868831, "distance_from_trend": 0.097338, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3987.35842, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125988, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.388278, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.001029, "excess_performance": 0.053638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097338, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.125988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104962, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123883, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.283292, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.338731, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5214, "relative_activity": 5.304171, "balance": 2.338731, "dry_up": 1.627162, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058383, "annualized_volatility": 0.417276, "from_high_reference": -0.356975, "from_low_reference": 0.359013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3175.868831, "fair_value_reference": 3987.35842, "structural_low": 2564.360107, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016396, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020777, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100368, "worst_return": -0.122409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009503, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228225, "worst_return": -0.152882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.028492, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.286072, "worst_return": -0.316062, "sufficient": false }, 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"energy": 25.604233, "activity_lines": [ 3107.00669, 2951.151829, 2954.708118, 3022.060091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }