{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef6af618-828a-4431-9c74-1fa0ce9a71f0", "symbol": "RBOT", "name": "iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.255, "architecture_energy": 30.967, "architecture_maturity": 74.346, "architecture_confidence": 94.481, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.95, "rotation_up": 33.11, "upward_expansion": 59.04, "deceleration": 88.19, "rotation_down": 27.46, "downward_expansion": 20.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.551667, 20.638091, 20.354333, 19.545817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.700001, "trend_reference": 18.58, "distance_from_trend": 0.167923, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.618484, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.484422, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.728249, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.302912, "excess_performance": 0.251677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.167923, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08761, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.484422, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015908, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.147282, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051458, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.302912, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.450317, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1409978, "relative_activity": 1.851279, "balance": 1.450317, "dry_up": 1.162123, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051134, "annualized_volatility": 0.291577, "from_high_reference": -0.003673, "from_low_reference": 0.473684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.58, "fair_value_reference": 14.618484, "structural_low": 14.725, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015059, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.001861, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.086368, "worst_return": -0.113442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046528, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.025729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.234269, "worst_return": -0.138144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.084371, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.019369, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.246126, "worst_return": -0.191781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084008, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082918, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.089639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.332739, "energy": 57.586617, "activity_lines": [ 21.107333, 20.913, 19.865547, 19.022312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.42, "volume": 699831, "typical_volume": 772436.35, "trend": 18.177, "fair_value": 14.44701, "relative_strength": 6.391637, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.401386, "energy": 38.407574, "activity_lines": [ 20.542666, 20.676182, 19.929881, 19.10957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.754999, "volume": 625376, "typical_volume": 734304.15, "trend": 18.291333, "fair_value": 14.496337, "relative_strength": 6.688574, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.051615, "energy": 28.054005, "activity_lines": [ 20.180666, 20.517727, 20.014238, 19.211376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.195, "volume": 805216, "typical_volume": 734611.75, "trend": 18.419833, "fair_value": 14.551208, "relative_strength": 7.480686, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.722207, "energy": 24.417573, "activity_lines": [ 20.094333, 20.438272, 20.123262, 19.334193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 1409978, "typical_volume": 761623.85, "trend": 18.58, "fair_value": 14.618484, "relative_strength": 14.728249, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.255486, "energy": 30.96655, "activity_lines": [ 20.551667, 20.638091, 20.354333, 19.545817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }