{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef6dfdc2-6a5f-4d90-a6f2-34e1681a7ce1", "symbol": "002026", "name": "Shandong Weida Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.501, "architecture_energy": 70.964, "architecture_maturity": 51.754, "architecture_confidence": 82.538, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 12.69, "upward_expansion": 14.11, "deceleration": 45.78, "rotation_down": 75.34, "downward_expansion": 89.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.950607, 10.365619, 11.250332, 11.930452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.4, "trend_reference": 12.950269, "distance_from_trend": -0.196928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.740693, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.03172, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.252693, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.343849, "excess_performance": -0.351248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196928, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.03172, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313461, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066964, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.343849, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.450309, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32323665, "relative_activity": 1.284279, "balance": 0.450309, "dry_up": 1.087691, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078811, "annualized_volatility": 0.301161, "from_high_reference": -0.398496, "from_low_reference": 0.155556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.950269, "fair_value_reference": 10.740693, "structural_low": 9.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.007305, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.024575, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.221024, "worst_return": -0.129253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072242, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067473, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.222265, "worst_return": -0.197786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038141, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.135997, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.441124, "worst_return": -0.208413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.69, "volume": 24605482, "typical_volume": 27690263.8, "trend": 13.435602, "fair_value": 10.729746, "relative_strength": -29.919906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.623351, "energy": 94.609632, "activity_lines": [ 10.53886, 11.173149, 11.931494, 12.591665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.35, "volume": 28627577, "typical_volume": 26409052.1, "trend": 13.277935, "fair_value": 10.732675, "relative_strength": -32.195036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.646292, "energy": 92.850833, "activity_lines": [ 10.035416, 10.748457, 11.634408, 12.328078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.82, "volume": 23946422, "typical_volume": 25403712.25, "trend": 13.105269, "fair_value": 10.731904, "relative_strength": -27.163689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.673254, "energy": 86.141015, "activity_lines": [ 9.863059, 10.476129, 11.405132, 12.104986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.4, "volume": 32323665, "typical_volume": 25168719.85, "trend": 12.950269, "fair_value": 10.740693, "relative_strength": -26.252693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.500796, "energy": 70.96397, "activity_lines": [ 9.950607, 10.365619, 11.250332, 11.930452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }