{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef725dfe-6a54-4a39-90f3-f52cb893601a", "symbol": "MCSM", "name": "Manulife Multifactor Canadian SMID Cap Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.395, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.982, "architecture_energy": 12.98, "architecture_maturity": 14.173, "architecture_confidence": 48.596, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.54, "rotation_up": 30.67, "upward_expansion": 27.55, "deceleration": 64.95, "rotation_down": 41.5, "downward_expansion": 26.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.796667, 66.765262, 66.892152, 66.84321 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 68.75, "trend_reference": 66.780203, "distance_from_trend": 0.029497, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.824625, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.704297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053156, "excess_performance": -0.067266, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029497, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025629, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.37984, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041243, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053156, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.860759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3200, "relative_activity": 1.624365, "balance": 0.860759, "dry_up": 0.736041, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026427, "annualized_volatility": 0.215898, "from_high_reference": -0.062457, "from_low_reference": 0.349595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.780203, "fair_value_reference": 49.824625, "structural_low": 58.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020045, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008939, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.098921, "worst_return": -0.057664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070214, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134438, "worst_return": 0.035317, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.068425, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.010544, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.096301, "worst_return": 0.024729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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24.799941, "activity_lines": [ 67.259293, 67.239481, 67.01763, 66.819816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 66.589996, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 2480.0, "trend": 66.335555, "fair_value": 49.135371, "relative_strength": -3.821486, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.922355, "energy": 11.648293, "activity_lines": [ 67.102622, 67.142279, 66.97003, 66.842759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 64.900002, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 2415.0, "trend": 66.35604, "fair_value": 49.298521, "relative_strength": -6.14255, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.076568, "energy": 11.163051, "activity_lines": [ 66.362979, 66.724718, 66.775382, 66.750142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.230003, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 2180.0, "trend": 66.385203, "fair_value": 49.468621, "relative_strength": -4.515661, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.346349, "energy": 15.130369, "activity_lines": [ 66.213087, 66.59502, 66.745496, 66.742011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.779999, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 2045.0, "trend": 66.576203, "fair_value": 49.636864, "relative_strength": -4.797483, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.50156, "energy": 30.415646, "activity_lines": [ 65.995334, 66.399074, 66.678991, 66.702965 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.75, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 1970.0, "trend": 66.780203, "fair_value": 49.824625, "relative_strength": -3.704297, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.98175, "energy": 12.979695, "activity_lines": [ 66.796667, 66.765262, 66.892152, 66.84321 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }