{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef8734b6-9080-4b97-be78-eeb5847deb2c", "symbol": "CLBS", "name": "Celebrus Technologies plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.94, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.003, "architecture_energy": 42.91, "architecture_maturity": 13.45, "architecture_confidence": 77.568, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.84, "rotation_up": 70.63, "upward_expansion": 46.28, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 16.68, "downward_expansion": 21.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.055607, 0.967342, 0.924856, 0.955152 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.065, "trend_reference": 1.035053, "distance_from_trend": 0.028933, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.854239, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.42564, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.076836, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.130612, "excess_performance": -0.181848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028933, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125027, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.42564, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129097, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130612, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.898086, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 600473, "relative_activity": 0.637908, "balance": 5.898086, "dry_up": 0.715328, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09638, "annualized_volatility": 0.575724, "from_high_reference": -0.447161, "from_low_reference": 0.471669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.035053, "fair_value_reference": 1.854239, "structural_low": 0.723668, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.010855, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041085, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.022222, "worst_return": -0.043932, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.026742, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.128548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026742, "worst_return": -0.026742, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.178814, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.295575, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.178814, "worst_return": -0.178814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046371, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.192771, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073469, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.214736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105105, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.254165, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.830568, "volume": 131964, "typical_volume": 138532.05, "trend": 1.908, "fair_value": 2.434438, "relative_strength": -8.503371, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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0.969709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.860543, "volume": 434242, "typical_volume": 962939.15, "trend": 1.077994, "fair_value": 1.873642, "relative_strength": -37.225007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.512602, "energy": 68.169353, "activity_lines": [ 0.799167, 0.834755, 0.869469, 0.954595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.026784, "volume": 1016067, "typical_volume": 990597.35, "trend": 1.06722, "fair_value": 1.869168, "relative_strength": -24.694989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.681911, "energy": 23.376681, "activity_lines": [ 0.876841, 0.866283, 0.877974, 0.951291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.085, "volume": 549106, "typical_volume": 964969.45, "trend": 1.058386, "fair_value": 1.864852, "relative_strength": -20.465038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.282827, "energy": 19.065306, "activity_lines": [ 0.960135, 0.905272, 0.893395, 0.952438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.085, "volume": 527753, "typical_volume": 953297.4, "trend": 1.049553, "fair_value": 1.859764, "relative_strength": -20.410372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.033869, "energy": 34.170081, "activity_lines": [ 1.022598, 0.939989, 0.909744, 0.954155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.065, "volume": 600473, "typical_volume": 941316.15, "trend": 1.035053, "fair_value": 1.854239, "relative_strength": -21.076836, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.002967, "energy": 42.910325, "activity_lines": [ 1.055607, 0.967342, 0.924856, 0.955152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }