{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef87ba82-f928-4ab5-83c7-fb6e014db9a2", "symbol": "TIINDIA", "name": "Tube Investments of India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.729, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.071, "architecture_energy": 22.507, "architecture_maturity": 37.884, "architecture_confidence": 87.476, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.25, "rotation_up": 14.29, "upward_expansion": 42.59, "deceleration": 80.51, "rotation_down": 46.18, "downward_expansion": 36.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 2792.888102, 2889.339222, 2944.672518, 2884.985595 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2772.0, "trend_reference": 2770.483089, "distance_from_trend": 0.000548, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3247.271952, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.922407, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.199148, "excess_performance": 0.242857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000548, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029866, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14636, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084743, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199148, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.61697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1505342, "relative_activity": 1.260716, "balance": 0.61697, "dry_up": 1.161827, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072949, "annualized_volatility": 0.320637, "from_high_reference": -0.188763, "from_low_reference": 0.281513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2770.483089, "fair_value_reference": 3247.271952, "structural_low": 2316.038336, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.037957, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.020184, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.191435, "worst_return": -0.106173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025434, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136065, "worst_return": -0.29748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.086014, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034708, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.766629, "worst_return": -0.33878, 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"Developing", "return": -0.225976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024954, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.165532, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055763, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118638, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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"relative_strength": 1.037279, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.600383, "energy": 19.095183, "activity_lines": [ 2883.219515, 2983.85502, 2970.758538, 2884.393812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2751.500488, "volume": 2134577, "typical_volume": 1252940.85, "trend": 2759.763908, "fair_value": 3247.719075, "relative_strength": -1.991462, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.413114, "energy": 20.610328, "activity_lines": [ 2824.553906, 2932.371715, 2957.437695, 2884.19617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2772.0, "volume": 1505342, "typical_volume": 1194037.2, "trend": 2770.483089, "fair_value": 3247.271952, "relative_strength": -1.922407, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.07098, "energy": 22.506584, "activity_lines": [ 2792.888102, 2889.339222, 2944.672518, 2884.985595 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }