{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef927c08-1548-4743-a445-1499c6333a86", "symbol": "300800", "name": "Lihe Technology (Hunan) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.048, "architecture_energy": 55.864, "architecture_maturity": 44.8, "architecture_confidence": 94.532, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 21.57, "upward_expansion": 9.43, "deceleration": 57.87, "rotation_down": 56.06, "downward_expansion": 80.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.250667, 9.402909, 10.179186, 10.712797 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.66, "trend_reference": 11.360597, "distance_from_trend": -0.149693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.989155, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120952, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.049191, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23232, "excess_performance": -0.239719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058675, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120952, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080062, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.336437, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17483100, "relative_activity": 1.206316, "balance": 0.336437, "dry_up": 1.157927, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08753, "annualized_volatility": 0.342767, "from_high_reference": -0.266426, "from_low_reference": 0.136471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.360597, "fair_value_reference": 10.989155, "structural_low": 8.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.009281, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.011692, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.247953, "worst_return": -0.212493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.038583, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021803, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.357895, "worst_return": -0.185375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013903, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.077747, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.262285, "worst_return": -0.315407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 9.48, "volume": 14714921, "typical_volume": 14268023.0, "trend": 11.658381, "fair_value": 11.109073, "relative_strength": -27.041504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.632476, "energy": 86.175648, "activity_lines": [ 9.662, 10.178199, 10.933058, 11.326685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.21, "volume": 14366736, "typical_volume": 14403782.35, "trend": 11.597168, "fair_value": 11.084115, "relative_strength": -21.538018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.736729, "energy": 81.891328, "activity_lines": [ 9.481333, 9.895415, 10.721071, 11.168725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.64, "volume": 19015451, "typical_volume": 14444432.4, "trend": 11.506709, "fair_value": 11.055016, "relative_strength": -26.072016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.063687, "energy": 73.279283, "activity_lines": [ 9.178, 9.573754, 10.47294, 10.97794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.16, "volume": 16261897, "typical_volume": 14424754.75, "trend": 11.423006, "fair_value": 11.024265, "relative_strength": -19.822775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.021607, "energy": 63.892588, "activity_lines": [ 9.126, 9.415091, 10.293914, 10.82654 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.66, "volume": 17483100, "typical_volume": 14492964.75, "trend": 11.360597, "fair_value": 10.989155, "relative_strength": -19.049191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.047641, "energy": 55.864031, "activity_lines": [ 9.250667, 9.402909, 10.179186, 10.712797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }