{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef94dea1-4ffa-4fd3-b67c-cfec302a2322", "symbol": "ERIC-B", "name": "Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.258, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.406, "architecture_energy": 67.134, "architecture_maturity": 10.345, "architecture_confidence": 69.625, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.65, "rotation_up": 16.15, "upward_expansion": 23.31, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 71.07, "downward_expansion": 62.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.603998, 100.262908, 106.140781, 106.473372 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 96.699997, "trend_reference": 105.030736, "distance_from_trend": -0.079317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.1069, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270581, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.637835, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017194, "excess_performance": -0.078688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270581, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237673, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017194, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.882059, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40061434, "relative_activity": 1.064372, "balance": 0.882059, "dry_up": 1.603306, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079938, "annualized_volatility": 0.330232, "from_high_reference": -0.241271, "from_low_reference": 0.378175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.030736, "fair_value_reference": 76.1069, "structural_low": 90.559998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.122426, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122608, "worst_return": 0.041772, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.018806, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1362, "worst_return": -0.039555, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.109402, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.030241, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154782, "worst_return": -0.000229, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 58255184, "typical_volume": 37601491.15, "trend": 104.438318, "fair_value": 75.493266, "relative_strength": -11.240136, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.766784, "energy": 59.026379, "activity_lines": [ 99.252665, 105.170726, 108.739646, 107.672222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 93.82, "volume": 49035283, "typical_volume": 37643120.35, "trend": 104.663851, "fair_value": 75.791423, "relative_strength": -10.444926, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.356058, "energy": 64.948072, "activity_lines": [ 96.520666, 102.163817, 107.271529, 106.987169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.699997, "volume": 40061434, "typical_volume": 37638546.9, "trend": 105.030736, "fair_value": 76.1069, "relative_strength": -9.637835, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.406298, "energy": 67.133639, "activity_lines": [ 95.603998, 100.262908, 106.140781, 106.473372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }