{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef9530ad-b0c4-4e8e-b416-236db0c31e52", "symbol": "RU2K", "name": "iShares Russell 2000 Swap UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.299, "architecture_energy": 44.295, "architecture_maturity": 64.275, "architecture_confidence": 89.376, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.91, "rotation_up": 38.69, "upward_expansion": 67.15, "deceleration": 88.27, "rotation_down": 27.77, "downward_expansion": 19.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.0636, 5.082977, 4.998587, 4.869494 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.148, "trend_reference": 4.718858, "distance_from_trend": 0.090942, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.168059, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235107, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.114573, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.158481, "excess_performance": 0.107246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090942, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235107, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048291, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.061146, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031378, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158481, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.62712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77262, "relative_activity": 0.524304, "balance": 4.62712, "dry_up": 0.540834, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025167, "annualized_volatility": 0.132938, "from_high_reference": -0.015302, "from_low_reference": 0.373349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.718858, "fair_value_reference": 4.168059, "structural_low": 4.128, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054812, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 3.8375, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 3.83725, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.615077, "energy": 54.708321, "activity_lines": [ 5.0822, 5.082736, 4.950614, 4.821379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.965, "volume": 91139, "typical_volume": 161765.25, "trend": 4.696075, "fair_value": 4.157522, "relative_strength": 2.924525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.082436, "energy": 40.044763, "activity_lines": [ 5.033867, 5.067009, 4.967552, 4.840337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.148, "volume": 77262, "typical_volume": 147361.2, "trend": 4.718858, "fair_value": 4.168059, "relative_strength": 6.114573, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.299094, "energy": 44.29509, "activity_lines": [ 5.0636, 5.082977, 4.998587, 4.869494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }