{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef9d392a-4b20-464c-8fa6-af2c89942892", "symbol": "SPEX", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ETF Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.453, "architecture_energy": 60.358, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.296, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 52.33, "upward_expansion": 81.03, "deceleration": 71.42, "rotation_down": 27.53, "downward_expansion": 10.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 5495.133333, 5480.618182, 5382.245238, 5292.904301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5568.0, "trend_reference": 5189.5, "distance_from_trend": 0.072936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4568.036859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218904, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.308587, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108942, "excess_performance": 0.057707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039612, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06932, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023086, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022386, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108942, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.971783, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95994, "relative_activity": 1.302657, "balance": 1.971783, "dry_up": 1.509854, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019755, "annualized_volatility": 0.08643, "from_high_reference": -0.010661, "from_low_reference": 0.217655 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5189.5, "fair_value_reference": 4568.036859, "structural_low": 4815.416016, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.012143, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.004292, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.075603, "worst_return": -0.059585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.042813, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.010623, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.081174, "worst_return": -0.069322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008026, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029687, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.137529, "worst_return": -0.043243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 66.229661, "energy": 79.826665, "activity_lines": [ 5469.333333, 5427.945455, 5301.202381, 5225.025806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5493.0, "volume": 61029, "typical_volume": 65606.25, "trend": 5150.45, "fair_value": 4547.639423, "relative_strength": 2.478662, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.633867, "energy": 65.60017, "activity_lines": [ 5476.533333, 5449.363636, 5329.402381, 5248.508602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5441.0, "volume": 209686, "typical_volume": 71463.95, "trend": 5170.416667, "fair_value": 4557.365385, "relative_strength": 0.30339, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.247541, "energy": 54.856846, "activity_lines": [ 5462.4, 5455.381818, 5350.883333, 5267.253763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5568.0, "volume": 95994, "typical_volume": 73690.9, "trend": 5189.5, "fair_value": 4568.036859, "relative_strength": 2.308587, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.452733, "energy": 60.357528, "activity_lines": [ 5495.133333, 5480.618182, 5382.245238, 5292.904301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }