{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efa0a2af-830d-4f81-8f05-b6ac3028ebfd", "symbol": "MCY", "name": "Mercury NZ Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.205, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.541, "architecture_energy": 13.05, "architecture_maturity": 41.187, "architecture_confidence": 87.976, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.9, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 49.63, "deceleration": 80.43, "rotation_down": 27.45, "downward_expansion": 25.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.811333, 6.831273, 6.844905, 6.757438 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.87, "trend_reference": 6.625325, "distance_from_trend": 0.03693, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.123446, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121917, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.627638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.078546, "excess_performance": 0.050272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03693, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027961, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121917, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016276, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065966, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078546, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.805277, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4409788, "relative_activity": 1.460643, "balance": 1.805277, "dry_up": 0.957491, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035382, "annualized_volatility": 0.155231, "from_high_reference": -0.040503, "from_low_reference": 0.159512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.625325, "fair_value_reference": 6.123446, "structural_low": 5.985736, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008658, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011322, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.039063, "worst_return": -0.129353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002235, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0528, "worst_return": -0.049751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026619, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.035437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051745, "worst_return": 0.000267, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082795, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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6.703941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.77, "volume": 1960372, "typical_volume": 2910619.05, "trend": 6.58294, "fair_value": 6.105282, "relative_strength": 1.454493, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.268843, "energy": 20.935436, "activity_lines": [ 6.832, 6.881273, 6.827333, 6.71723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.85, "volume": 2070837, "typical_volume": 2913385.25, "trend": 6.601576, "fair_value": 6.11194, "relative_strength": 1.929894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.092617, "energy": 18.587739, "activity_lines": [ 6.833333, 6.868545, 6.83919, 6.73446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.7, "volume": 3121950, "typical_volume": 2973562.35, "trend": 6.612258, "fair_value": 6.117578, "relative_strength": 0.135949, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.020801, "energy": 10.267836, "activity_lines": [ 6.794, 6.832182, 6.83481, 6.74081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.87, "volume": 4409788, "typical_volume": 3019073.85, "trend": 6.625325, "fair_value": 6.123446, "relative_strength": 1.627638, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.540809, "energy": 13.049803, "activity_lines": [ 6.811333, 6.831273, 6.844905, 6.757438 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }