{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efa11b88-afb7-4f1a-8246-eee8072a4afd", "symbol": "CHMI", "name": "Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.169, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.097, "architecture_energy": 20.142, "architecture_maturity": 41.531, "architecture_confidence": 79.433, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.3, "rotation_up": 27.21, "upward_expansion": 20.35, "deceleration": 42.22, "rotation_down": 34.19, "downward_expansion": 59.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.324667, 2.317226, 2.344923, 2.392475 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.41, "trend_reference": 2.451281, "distance_from_trend": -0.016841, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.463544, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.18514, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024747, "excess_performance": -0.150372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016841, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003691, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021735, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007904, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024747, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.842145, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1894377, "relative_activity": 1.878319, "balance": 0.842145, "dry_up": 1.094814, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056478, "annualized_volatility": 0.250172, "from_high_reference": -0.107407, "from_low_reference": 0.200318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.451281, "fair_value_reference": 2.463544, "structural_low": 2.185785, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008811, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": 0.006547, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.247485, "worst_return": -0.173365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029986, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.063934, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.525134, "worst_return": -0.215164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.046182, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.066298, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.291164, "worst_return": -0.192212, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05166, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101215, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019841, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007722, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 2.472117, "relative_strength": -14.650085, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.535417, "energy": 32.912029, "activity_lines": [ 2.313444, 2.304927, 2.386793, 2.429877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.35, "volume": 655507, "typical_volume": 990069.15, "trend": 2.469876, "fair_value": 2.470156, "relative_strength": -11.138812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.959284, "energy": 23.521402, "activity_lines": [ 2.328584, 2.310912, 2.377503, 2.421964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.26, "volume": 831245, "typical_volume": 980367.45, "trend": 2.461319, "fair_value": 2.466777, "relative_strength": -13.689363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.012504, "energy": 31.046173, "activity_lines": [ 2.309168, 2.302951, 2.360494, 2.408424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.26, "volume": 1035566, "typical_volume": 994351.9, "trend": 2.455884, "fair_value": 2.46452, "relative_strength": -14.211532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.801139, "energy": 36.588281, "activity_lines": [ 2.288, 2.295733, 2.344857, 2.395435 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.41, "volume": 1894377, "typical_volume": 1008549.3, "trend": 2.451281, "fair_value": 2.463544, "relative_strength": -11.18514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.097333, "energy": 20.142397, "activity_lines": [ 2.324667, 2.317226, 2.344923, 2.392475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }