{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efa4217f-9fa2-456b-bcdc-3f8d4838d473", "symbol": "ATX", "name": "ATEX Resources Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.696, "architecture_energy": 48.613, "architecture_maturity": 49.745, "architecture_confidence": 92.825, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.17, "rotation_up": 25.29, "upward_expansion": 7.4, "deceleration": 58.43, "rotation_down": 51.98, "downward_expansion": 80.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.428, 2.448727, 2.646714, 2.855871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.7, "trend_reference": 3.176333, "distance_from_trend": -0.149963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.946538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.387078, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.438059, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.326683, "excess_performance": -0.447105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.387078, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168872, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326683, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.613181, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3285100, "relative_activity": 1.514831, "balance": 0.613181, "dry_up": 0.91799, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116809, "annualized_volatility": 0.556848, "from_high_reference": -0.406593, "from_low_reference": 0.267606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.176333, "fair_value_reference": 1.946538, "structural_low": 2.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066153, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 2.090909, "worst_return": -0.22093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118421, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.009019, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.636364, "worst_return": -0.296296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.857143, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 1.816344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.955556, "worst_return": -0.212963, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.275168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060465, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084112, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.261062, "active": false 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.2, "volume": 2143000, "typical_volume": 2487850.0, "trend": 3.273, "fair_value": 1.919679, "relative_strength": -31.732243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.448338, "energy": 82.121843, "activity_lines": [ 2.380667, 2.528909, 2.77981, 3.011204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.28, "volume": 1238500, "typical_volume": 2418010.0, "trend": 3.241667, "fair_value": 1.927372, "relative_strength": -29.326274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.948589, "energy": 73.404884, "activity_lines": [ 2.322667, 2.459273, 2.714333, 2.94714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.33, "volume": 1296500, "typical_volume": 2256935.0, "trend": 3.203, "fair_value": 1.935321, "relative_strength": -27.351278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.557975, "energy": 68.145778, "activity_lines": [ 2.308667, 2.414545, 2.660476, 2.888323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.7, "volume": 3285100, "typical_volume": 2168625.0, "trend": 3.176333, "fair_value": 1.946538, "relative_strength": -18.438059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.696085, "energy": 48.613451, "activity_lines": [ 2.428, 2.448727, 2.646714, 2.855871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }