{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efa86888-cfe0-4da6-af3d-f35261025760", "symbol": "IGC", "name": "India Capital Growth Fund Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.604, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.428, "architecture_energy": 43.524, "architecture_maturity": 27.763, "architecture_confidence": 61.843, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.16, "rotation_up": 50.67, "upward_expansion": 76.75, "deceleration": 66.08, "rotation_down": 21.91, "downward_expansion": 5.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 172.8, 171.640909, 166.582143, 162.545699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 176.0, "trend_reference": 158.991667, "distance_from_trend": 0.106976, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 170.326923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033307, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.673711, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093168, "excess_performance": 0.041932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106976, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00878, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033307, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069821, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016737, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073998, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093168, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.99173, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 737331, "relative_activity": 1.053713, "balance": 0.99173, "dry_up": 1.302131, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055306, "annualized_volatility": 0.201159, "from_high_reference": -0.048649, "from_low_reference": 0.30855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.991667, "fair_value_reference": 170.326923, "structural_low": 134.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.006148, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.007038, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.08764, "worst_return": -0.13172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.028926, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.009002, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.190476, "worst_return": -0.179028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000313, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.073064, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.245421, "worst_return": -0.132022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019361, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048657, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.331967, "worst_return": -0.094017, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12532, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057803, "active": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.760822, "energy": 72.424107, "activity_lines": [ 171.166667, 166.795455, 161.186905, 159.09086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 169.5, "volume": 1111540, "typical_volume": 753679.6, "trend": 158.758333, "fair_value": 169.820513, "relative_strength": -3.827861, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.899549, "energy": 65.335883, "activity_lines": [ 170.933333, 167.836364, 162.433333, 159.772043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 170.0, "volume": 716650, "typical_volume": 723110.5, "trend": 158.608333, "fair_value": 169.996795, "relative_strength": -4.308075, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.64659, "energy": 49.699382, "activity_lines": [ 170.433333, 168.831818, 163.64881, 160.497312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 173.0, "volume": 1079121, "typical_volume": 711421.9, "trend": 158.641667, "fair_value": 170.166667, "relative_strength": -3.384665, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.745294, "energy": 41.335711, "activity_lines": [ 171.166667, 170.145455, 165.045238, 161.425806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 176.0, "volume": 737331, "typical_volume": 699745.85, "trend": 158.991667, "fair_value": 170.326923, "relative_strength": -1.673711, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.428467, "energy": 43.524335, "activity_lines": [ 172.8, 171.640909, 166.582143, 162.545699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }