{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efa99a69-b12c-4d3b-b07f-a70a23603c6e", "symbol": "HRL-F68", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4D) S&P Industrial", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.488, "architecture_energy": 64.048, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.186, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.19, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 50.37, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.931333, 62.28, 1545.491429, 2663.333333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 63.98, "trend_reference": 3944.552667, "distance_from_trend": -0.98378, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5025.497308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.792354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989276, "excess_performance": -1.018176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.98378, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321465, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987269, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.098193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987924, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.752518, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989276, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.956665, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27821, "relative_activity": 2.647967, "balance": 0.956665, "dry_up": 1.519267, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 6.992774, "annualized_volatility": 6.322115, "from_high_reference": -0.989786, "from_low_reference": 0.161794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3944.552667, "fair_value_reference": 5025.497308, "structural_low": 55.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.013523, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.006773, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.085663, "worst_return": -0.036025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020818, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052809, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.042985, "worst_return": -0.003569, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.041355, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.097099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043447, "worst_return": 0.039262, "sufficient": false 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2912.47619, 3786.954409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.28, "volume": 513, "typical_volume": 8017.25, "trend": 4511.068667, "fair_value": 5109.519615, "relative_strength": -98.929484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.35613, "energy": 80.767828, "activity_lines": [ 61.813333, 665.313091, 2527.184857, 3487.82886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.3, "volume": 8495, "typical_volume": 8101.4, "trend": 4323.378667, "fair_value": 5081.842051, "relative_strength": -98.894109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.969814, "energy": 68.026595, "activity_lines": [ 62.38, 362.057455, 2171.541714, 3200.876043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.24, "volume": 27020, "typical_volume": 9407.35, "trend": 4134.753333, "fair_value": 5054.10641, "relative_strength": -98.85407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.921044, "energy": 67.88761, "activity_lines": [ 62.418, 161.621818, 1844.491429, 2925.963871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.98, "volume": 27821, "typical_volume": 10506.55, "trend": 3944.552667, "fair_value": 5025.497308, "relative_strength": -98.792354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.487563, "energy": 64.047818, "activity_lines": [ 62.931333, 62.28, 1545.491429, 2663.333333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }