{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efaa523d-f12d-44dc-9440-76ab7261f23a", "symbol": "IPRP", "name": "iShares European Property Yield UCITS ETF EUR (Dist)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 53.407, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.224, "architecture_energy": 10.145, "architecture_maturity": 13.011, "architecture_confidence": 83.611, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.92, "rotation_up": 28.4, "upward_expansion": 31.4, "deceleration": 42.35, "rotation_down": 25.46, "downward_expansion": 42.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.611333, 30.539751, 30.482292, 30.658938 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.629999, "trend_reference": 30.945129, "distance_from_trend": -0.010183, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.763283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064899, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.263651, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033333, "excess_performance": -0.149996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010183, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00149, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064899, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78793, "relative_activity": 1.23968, "balance": 0.620087, "dry_up": 1.093666, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025497, "annualized_volatility": 0.197555, "from_high_reference": -0.11425, "from_low_reference": 0.065762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.945129, "fair_value_reference": 28.763283, "structural_low": 28.74, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.004586, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.005793, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.132046, "worst_return": -0.038807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010273, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003895, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.092831, "worst_return": -0.082778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021479, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.047072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118738, "worst_return": -0.201293, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.380477, "energy": 16.070227, "activity_lines": [ 30.446087, 30.327355, 30.528094, 30.778421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.309999, "volume": 138172, "typical_volume": 121813.5, "trend": 30.904811, "fair_value": 28.585861, "relative_strength": -11.36846, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.162567, "energy": 16.582083, "activity_lines": [ 30.473371, 30.330609, 30.469533, 30.741796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.575001, "volume": 92950, "typical_volume": 100435.05, "trend": 30.92743, "fair_value": 28.628232, "relative_strength": -10.926379, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.491513, "energy": 18.690715, "activity_lines": [ 30.538333, 30.388477, 30.450121, 30.720518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.440001, "volume": 61501, "typical_volume": 81642.4, "trend": 30.942883, "fair_value": 28.670462, "relative_strength": -10.844526, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.814358, "energy": 16.377674, "activity_lines": [ 30.531, 30.416842, 30.43626, 30.689071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.809999, "volume": 44806, "typical_volume": 69632.95, "trend": 30.964171, "fair_value": 28.71748, "relative_strength": -10.170747, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.36533, "energy": 8.416641, "activity_lines": [ 30.604333, 30.498875, 30.467285, 30.680498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.629999, "volume": 78793, "typical_volume": 63559.15, "trend": 30.945129, "fair_value": 28.763283, "relative_strength": -11.263651, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.224226, "energy": 10.144511, "activity_lines": [ 30.611333, 30.539751, 30.482292, 30.658938 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }