{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efae139f-ff09-479a-ac8b-952cd4e07355", "symbol": "CW8", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI World Swap UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.783, "architecture_energy": 67.39, "architecture_maturity": 80.158, "architecture_confidence": 74.781, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 54.41, "upward_expansion": 82.79, "deceleration": 71.15, "rotation_down": 28.43, "downward_expansion": 11.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 686.228003, 683.177505, 672.975664, 659.075604 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 699.77002, "trend_reference": 642.904557, "distance_from_trend": 0.088451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 546.238762, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28107, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.156906, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.140165, "excess_performance": 0.086854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088451, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040876, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28107, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041392, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051569, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.136038, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33515, "relative_activity": 1.215236, "balance": 3.136038, "dry_up": 1.008367, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017952, "annualized_volatility": 0.107201, "from_high_reference": -0.002224, "from_low_reference": 0.237211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 642.904557, "fair_value_reference": 546.238762, "structural_low": 583.888306, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.009942, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.004393, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.066143, "worst_return": -0.083297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.026653, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.023444, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.099459, "worst_return": -0.151997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06905, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.083487, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.150735, "worst_return": -0.075997, "sufficient": true }, { 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681.662, 677.898126, 662.542529, 649.822323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 681.650024, "volume": 23452, "typical_volume": 29107.95, "trend": 638.017824, "fair_value": 542.859854, "relative_strength": 6.976641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.280265, "energy": 64.296188, "activity_lines": [ 681.96934, 679.223585, 665.959951, 652.79566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 675.909973, "volume": 30506, "typical_volume": 28399.15, "trend": 640.323037, "fair_value": 544.463486, "relative_strength": 4.212652, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.863564, "energy": 58.495076, "activity_lines": [ 680.199996, 679.095617, 668.489643, 655.240315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 699.77002, "volume": 33515, "typical_volume": 27579.0, "trend": 642.904557, "fair_value": 546.238762, "relative_strength": 5.156906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.782829, "energy": 67.389692, "activity_lines": [ 686.228003, 683.177505, 672.975664, 659.075604 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }