{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efae88cd-71b2-4183-9db3-02bf0a6d28e8", "symbol": "CRK", "name": "Comstock Resources Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.905, "architecture_energy": 51.266, "architecture_maturity": 79.192, "architecture_confidence": 91.973, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.68, "rotation_up": 28.98, "upward_expansion": 8.79, "deceleration": 56.54, "rotation_down": 48.53, "downward_expansion": 82.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.35, 13.498909, 14.001762, 15.324602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.41, "trend_reference": 17.224, "distance_from_trend": -0.221435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.446169, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.075728, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.378303, "excess_performance": -0.503928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.221435, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16654, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131824, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058745, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.360757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044994, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378303, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.173633, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9520297, "relative_activity": 0.786287, "balance": 1.173633, "dry_up": 1.018782, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091326, "annualized_volatility": 0.553641, "from_high_reference": -0.522759, "from_low_reference": 0.106436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.224, "fair_value_reference": 15.446169, "structural_low": 12.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.037142, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025013, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.571078, "worst_return": -0.177096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.103297, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.000651, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.530637, "worst_return": -0.201889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.238792, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.156075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.490196, "worst_return": 0.03794, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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15.400127, "relative_strength": -30.783795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.463525, "energy": 50.009936, "activity_lines": [ 13.996, 13.915273, 15.432095, 16.885441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.92, "volume": 11257141, "typical_volume": 11774166.8, "trend": 18.437, "fair_value": 15.41145, "relative_strength": -39.113257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.206194, "energy": 53.799381, "activity_lines": [ 13.729333, 13.68, 15.043857, 16.510688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.34, "volume": 13808134, "typical_volume": 11991215.75, "trend": 18.163333, "fair_value": 15.421079, "relative_strength": -35.290461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.127165, "energy": 49.154667, "activity_lines": [ 13.608, 13.601818, 14.72919, 16.181849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.52, "volume": 11009163, "typical_volume": 11977071.6, "trend": 17.829, "fair_value": 15.429293, "relative_strength": -33.354909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.301196, "energy": 50.03533, "activity_lines": [ 13.558667, 13.570182, 14.461524, 15.88228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.26, "volume": 15003681, "typical_volume": 12254456.45, "trend": 17.485, "fair_value": 15.43772, "relative_strength": -34.938028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.45267, "energy": 51.886946, "activity_lines": [ 13.394667, 13.514727, 14.206524, 15.587505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.41, "volume": 9520297, "typical_volume": 12107909.3, "trend": 17.224, "fair_value": 15.446169, "relative_strength": -36.075728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.905448, "energy": 51.266049, "activity_lines": [ 13.35, 13.498909, 14.001762, 15.324602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }