{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efb205d5-d7f9-42c1-a414-dcd575e1cef3", "symbol": "QDVO", "name": "AMPLIFY CWP GROWTH & INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.521, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.924, "architecture_energy": 25.464, "architecture_maturity": 44.535, "architecture_confidence": 80.641, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.41, "rotation_up": 35.33, "upward_expansion": 60.99, "deceleration": 86.82, "rotation_down": 24.53, "downward_expansion": 13.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.399132, 29.342939, 29.368673, 28.927568 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.08, "trend_reference": 28.413366, "distance_from_trend": 0.058657, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.408288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.850516, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089709, "excess_performance": -0.035916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058657, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020074, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034224, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089709, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.408288, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 967388, "relative_activity": 0.735269, "balance": 1.408288, "dry_up": 0.874191, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030262, "annualized_volatility": 0.15716, "from_high_reference": -0.01457, "from_low_reference": 0.189792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.413366, "fair_value_reference": 25.408288, "structural_low": 25.28174, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.012591, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.015612, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.012591, "worst_return": -0.012591, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007888, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042607, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094214, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030868, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.210372, "volume": 1151044, "typical_volume": 1361411.95, "trend": 28.274359, "fair_value": 25.291699, "relative_strength": -3.187287, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.627629, "energy": 20.579186, "activity_lines": [ 29.340865, 29.454579, 29.198066, 28.736274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.843756, "volume": 1128288, "typical_volume": 1318860.65, "trend": 28.302725, "fair_value": 25.326868, "relative_strength": -3.757092, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.663567, "energy": 20.260177, "activity_lines": [ 29.181279, 29.313133, 29.221705, 28.773009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.96, "volume": 1353945, "typical_volume": 1325606.75, "trend": 28.341611, "fair_value": 25.362487, "relative_strength": -4.298906, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.540003, "energy": 13.194684, "activity_lines": [ 29.115024, 29.215672, 29.247218, 28.815414 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.08, "volume": 967388, "typical_volume": 1315691.75, "trend": 28.413366, "fair_value": 25.408288, "relative_strength": -3.850516, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.923967, "energy": 25.464218, "activity_lines": [ 29.399132, 29.342939, 29.368673, 28.927568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }