{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efb5e7e7-a80d-41df-a341-53920620a5e7", "symbol": "XLVP", "name": "Invesco Health Care S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.536, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.544, "architecture_energy": 54.549, "architecture_maturity": 24.48, "architecture_confidence": 78.929, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.75, "rotation_up": 65.42, "upward_expansion": 83.91, "deceleration": 63.2, "rotation_down": 17.87, "downward_expansion": 8.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 60213.0, 59759.909091, 57897.547619, 57102.817204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 60520.0, "trend_reference": 56525.5, "distance_from_trend": 0.070667, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54018.269481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120362, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.263316, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064181, "excess_performance": 0.012946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070667, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013389, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142765, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002633, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079934, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064181, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.225234, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3137, "relative_activity": 2.407059, "balance": 2.225234, "dry_up": 1.722041, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034025, "annualized_volatility": 0.165351, "from_high_reference": -0.155951, "from_low_reference": 0.286428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56525.5, "fair_value_reference": 54018.269481, "structural_low": 51940.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.001982, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.005954, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.053956, "worst_return": -0.194444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.001418, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.021396, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.040701, "worst_return": -0.201975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005999, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049761, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111192, "worst_return": -0.26592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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53763.198968, "relative_strength": 2.851043, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.713878, "energy": 75.332466, "activity_lines": [ 59240.666667, 57860.909091, 56242.095238, 56078.139785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60015.0, "volume": 2760, "typical_volume": 1152.75, "trend": 56192.0, "fair_value": 53823.878456, "relative_strength": 2.523471, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.249805, "energy": 85.026097, "activity_lines": [ 59727.666667, 58485.636364, 56655.619048, 56331.354839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60575.0, "volume": 902, "typical_volume": 1184.15, "trend": 56328.833333, "fair_value": 53891.122045, "relative_strength": 2.095091, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.096294, "energy": 82.727889, "activity_lines": [ 60179.0, 59068.454545, 57113.880952, 56614.129032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59820.0, "volume": 2178, "typical_volume": 1252.75, "trend": 56436.5, "fair_value": 53955.75025, "relative_strength": -0.466924, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.75498, "energy": 56.078231, "activity_lines": [ 60071.0, 59394.454545, 57481.547619, 56839.365591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60520.0, "volume": 3137, "typical_volume": 1303.25, "trend": 56525.5, "fair_value": 54018.269481, "relative_strength": 0.263316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.544091, "energy": 54.549017, "activity_lines": [ 60213.0, 59759.909091, 57897.547619, 57102.817204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }