{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efb8c3d2-c86d-4d32-b6bf-36a2787397c0", "symbol": "HYT", "name": "Hyterra Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.389, "architecture_energy": 84.413, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.683, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.67, "rotation_up": 8.54, "upward_expansion": 17.22, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 83.07, "downward_expansion": 92.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.010967, 0.012864, 0.014116, 0.014639 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.015492, "distance_from_trend": -0.612711, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.026011, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.769325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -68.16555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.647059, "excess_performance": -0.710764, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.612711, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134942, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.769325, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373879, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.681656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.465064, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.647059, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.117068, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61224163, "relative_activity": 7.547826, "balance": 0.117068, "dry_up": 2.651823, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.455128, "annualized_volatility": 1.319476, "from_high_reference": -0.777778, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.015492, "fair_value_reference": 0.026011, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.037364, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.014918, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.021063, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.266667, "worst_return": -0.441176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.176329, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.17169, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.052632, "worst_return": -0.472222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.451613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.58674, "energy": 18.655578, "activity_lines": [ 0.015467, 0.015645, 0.015602, 0.015899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.013, "volume": 10009749, "typical_volume": 5163122.5, "trend": 0.016492, "fair_value": 0.026235, "relative_strength": -29.273476, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.680654, "energy": 40.119781, "activity_lines": [ 0.014533, 0.015145, 0.015355, 0.015663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.013, "volume": 8096940, "typical_volume": 5106749.8, "trend": 0.016326, "fair_value": 0.026165, "relative_strength": -28.533654, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.29364, "energy": 55.116264, "activity_lines": [ 0.013767, 0.0147, 0.015123, 0.015438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 6710176, "typical_volume": 5256285.85, "trend": 0.016059, "fair_value": 0.026107, "relative_strength": -24.344778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.939291, "energy": 59.391949, "activity_lines": [ 0.013533, 0.014491, 0.014996, 0.015288 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 61224163, "typical_volume": 8111496.5, "trend": 0.015492, "fair_value": 0.026011, "relative_strength": -68.16555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.388814, "energy": 84.412811, "activity_lines": [ 0.010967, 0.012864, 0.014116, 0.014639 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }