{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efb8d6a7-79fa-44d8-a534-cf84b7719db0", "symbol": "KNCT", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR NEXT GEN CONNECTIVITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.104, "architecture_energy": 22.012, "architecture_maturity": 73.147, "architecture_confidence": 91.503, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.17, "rotation_up": 23.29, "upward_expansion": 55.2, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 30.47, "downward_expansion": 18.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 191.425073, 195.00668, 192.918746, 183.325982 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 196.3659, "trend_reference": 170.480341, "distance_from_trend": 0.151839, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 114.670578, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.712435, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.394662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.370433, "excess_performance": 0.244808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151839, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144081, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.712435, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092314, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.153947, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124593, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.370433, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.842532, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13384, "relative_activity": 0.710322, "balance": 0.842532, "dry_up": 0.904183, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083992, "annualized_volatility": 0.308494, "from_high_reference": -0.105119, "from_low_reference": 0.741575 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 170.480341, "fair_value_reference": 114.670578, "structural_low": 133.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.044126, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.014121, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.218833, "worst_return": -0.05502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.076209, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.00563, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.498611, "worst_return": -0.10347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.127628, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.019361, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188786, "worst_return": -0.051187, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "up", "direction": 44.978108, "energy": 35.440996, "activity_lines": [ 197.22821, 199.679513, 189.648344, 178.725248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 188.4834, "volume": 13360, "typical_volume": 17651.8, "trend": 166.874111, "fair_value": 113.180035, "relative_strength": 17.267779, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.693217, "energy": 23.021006, "activity_lines": [ 193.006573, 197.704672, 190.754001, 180.236274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 186.9618, "volume": 26467, "typical_volume": 18620.95, "trend": 168.563111, "fair_value": 113.896671, "relative_strength": 14.407968, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.086964, "energy": 21.654264, "activity_lines": [ 190.038533, 195.427678, 191.495347, 181.532254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 196.3659, "volume": 13384, "typical_volume": 18842.15, "trend": 170.480341, "fair_value": 114.670578, "relative_strength": 15.394662, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.10411, "energy": 22.012083, "activity_lines": [ 191.425073, 195.00668, 192.918746, 183.325982 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }