{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efbc0365-e6cd-4d5f-832c-864de137f665", "symbol": "EUSE", "name": "WisdomTree Long SEK Short EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.251, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.944, "architecture_energy": 48.276, "architecture_maturity": 33.6, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.26, "rotation_up": 22.91, "upward_expansion": 7.13, "deceleration": 58.71, "rotation_down": 57.07, "downward_expansion": 82.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.718999, 40.740363, 40.961404, 41.127021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.965, "trend_reference": 41.3885, "distance_from_trend": -0.010232, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.686378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032218, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.855953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026728, "excess_performance": -0.19762, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010232, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001833, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032218, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033759, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026728, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.33141, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.005001, "balance": 0.33141, "dry_up": 1.072768, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007624, "annualized_volatility": 0.051382, "from_high_reference": -0.042874, "from_low_reference": 0.024253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.3885, "fair_value_reference": 39.686378, "structural_low": 40.439999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.003155, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.007001, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.029613, "worst_return": -0.032508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008259, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.038289, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.081365, "worst_return": -0.040904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009617, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.033528, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.027614, "worst_return": -0.065663, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 41.010667, 41.191091, 41.294238, 41.426161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 40.665001, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 319.45, "trend": 41.4895, "fair_value": 39.574231, "relative_strength": -15.987374, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.314999, "energy": 84.143329, "activity_lines": [ 40.839, 41.075364, 41.218976, 41.372537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.709999, "volume": 223, "typical_volume": 238.6, "trend": 41.472, "fair_value": 39.594007, "relative_strength": -15.149764, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.744086, "energy": 81.755625, "activity_lines": [ 40.758667, 40.986182, 41.156, 41.322247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.68, "volume": 849, "typical_volume": 259.05, "trend": 41.459166, "fair_value": 39.614615, "relative_strength": -13.618953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.636458, "energy": 80.936088, "activity_lines": [ 40.697333, 40.901455, 41.097166, 41.27115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.57, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 247.7, "trend": 41.442666, "fair_value": 39.635513, "relative_strength": -13.352831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.275727, "energy": 78.35849, "activity_lines": [ 40.635, 40.810182, 41.034452, 41.213785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.544998, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 228.75, "trend": 41.412166, "fair_value": 39.657789, "relative_strength": -13.608099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.275477, "energy": 68.89808, "activity_lines": [ 40.608666, 40.729818, 40.975523, 41.155871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.965, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 199.95, "trend": 41.3885, "fair_value": 39.686378, "relative_strength": -14.855953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.94432, "energy": 48.275787, "activity_lines": [ 40.718999, 40.740363, 40.961404, 41.127021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }