{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efc3fd27-f1f5-4fc6-9d3c-463ec0947a8a", "symbol": "TLG", "name": "Troilus Mining Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.196, "architecture_energy": 14.964, "architecture_maturity": 13.102, "architecture_confidence": 50.405, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.52, "rotation_up": 17.04, "upward_expansion": 11.78, "deceleration": 49.14, "rotation_down": 48.64, "downward_expansion": 68.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.730667, 1.740727, 1.774048, 1.771978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.95, "trend_reference": 1.791, "distance_from_trend": 0.088777, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.829295, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.351395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.772794, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083333, "excess_performance": -0.037088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088777, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.351395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150164, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.107728, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.598821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7595900, "relative_activity": 1.127781, "balance": 1.598821, "dry_up": 1.047254, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122682, "annualized_volatility": 0.824059, "from_high_reference": -0.16309, "from_low_reference": 1.910448 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.791, "fair_value_reference": 0.829295, "structural_low": 1.2, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.0669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235294, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.076628, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.057163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.527778, "worst_return": -0.361111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.162393, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.174201, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.833333, "worst_return": -0.252874, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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0.789808, "relative_strength": 18.040908, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.027236, "energy": 13.951716, "activity_lines": [ 1.828667, 1.855818, 1.799714, 1.799978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.72, "volume": 6398600, "typical_volume": 7444895.0, "trend": 1.783, "fair_value": 0.797372, "relative_strength": 4.577006, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.421895, "energy": 8.91548, "activity_lines": [ 1.794, 1.833091, 1.792571, 1.79628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.53, "volume": 5417400, "typical_volume": 7322030.0, "trend": 1.780667, "fair_value": 0.804103, "relative_strength": -7.599146, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.021216, "energy": 30.899713, "activity_lines": [ 1.701333, 1.773818, 1.769714, 1.779957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.65, "volume": 8256800, "typical_volume": 7251840.0, "trend": 1.780667, "fair_value": 0.811731, "relative_strength": -1.561412, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.179417, "energy": 39.66914, "activity_lines": [ 1.671333, 1.741273, 1.761714, 1.771527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.62, "volume": 6944000, "typical_volume": 7174340.0, "trend": 1.782333, "fair_value": 0.819423, "relative_strength": -3.843543, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.02179, "energy": 47.354019, "activity_lines": [ 1.643333, 1.708545, 1.752, 1.761161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.95, "volume": 7595900, "typical_volume": 6735260.0, "trend": 1.791, "fair_value": 0.829295, "relative_strength": 10.772794, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.195869, "energy": 14.96419, "activity_lines": [ 1.730667, 1.740727, 1.774048, 1.771978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }