{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efcd0d4b-e7c2-4d2b-a8ea-6465e2e73286", "symbol": "ABEO", "name": "Ab\u00e9o SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 75.614, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.849, "architecture_energy": 21.351, "architecture_maturity": 56.725, "architecture_confidence": 78.005, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.06, "rotation_up": 17.48, "upward_expansion": 51.12, "deceleration": 93.55, "rotation_down": 38.61, "downward_expansion": 19.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.96387, 9.161128, 9.134645, 8.977481 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.0, "trend_reference": 8.842644, "distance_from_trend": 0.017795, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.430057, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137109, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.418644, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.034483, "excess_performance": -0.018829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017795, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026782, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137109, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070226, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034483, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.118315, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6217, "relative_activity": 0.120372, "balance": 1.118315, "dry_up": 0.11419, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056519, "annualized_volatility": 0.284317, "from_high_reference": -0.130435, "from_low_reference": 0.196809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.842644, "fair_value_reference": 10.430057, "structural_low": 7.52, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.028463, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.021954, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.167665, "worst_return": -0.138801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014791, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006596, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.172638, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08829, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.009799, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.189983, "worst_return": -0.076264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"activity_lines": [ 9.631171, 9.511778, 9.058515, 8.924492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.181512, "volume": 6109, "typical_volume": 53168.3, "trend": 8.835785, "fair_value": 10.60719, "relative_strength": -0.201529, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.566408, "energy": 36.753993, "activity_lines": [ 9.442872, 9.483107, 9.09384, 8.948262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.2008, "volume": 5027, "typical_volume": 52589.25, "trend": 8.845812, "fair_value": 10.562598, "relative_strength": 0.187272, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.552652, "energy": 23.181777, "activity_lines": [ 9.322234, 9.449915, 9.12928, 8.971812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.544977, "volume": 6701, "typical_volume": 52167.2, "trend": 8.836644, "fair_value": 10.515435, "relative_strength": -7.057933, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.64069, "energy": 20.553524, "activity_lines": [ 9.01627, 9.28874, 9.100734, 8.952403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.06, "volume": 5646, "typical_volume": 51718.95, "trend": 8.834644, "fair_value": 10.472786, "relative_strength": -2.788297, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.279922, "energy": 24.102557, "activity_lines": [ 8.978981, 9.231298, 9.121975, 8.966813 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.0, "volume": 6217, "typical_volume": 51648.35, "trend": 8.842644, "fair_value": 10.430057, "relative_strength": -5.418644, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.849299, "energy": 21.350816, "activity_lines": [ 8.96387, 9.161128, 9.134645, 8.977481 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }