{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efd27560-c1ea-4873-a484-10a1881a0ab8", "symbol": "601116", "name": "Sanjiang Shopping Club Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.237, "architecture_energy": 57.14, "architecture_maturity": 89.991, "architecture_confidence": 94.08, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 10.31, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 52.32, "downward_expansion": 83.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.048, 10.110098, 11.030319, 11.948943 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.48, "trend_reference": 13.357538, "distance_from_trend": -0.215424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.200419, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.064321, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.048948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.368294, "excess_performance": -0.32509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.064321, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.368294, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.514867, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56074779, "relative_activity": 1.19372, "balance": 0.514867, "dry_up": 1.473913, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095934, "annualized_volatility": 0.416728, "from_high_reference": -0.543753, "from_low_reference": 0.146608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.357538, "fair_value_reference": 11.200419, "structural_low": 9.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.018416, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.01843, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.241535, "worst_return": -0.167588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -2e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043224, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.369863, "worst_return": -0.237321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.213581, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.168936, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.430274, "worst_return": -0.176418, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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12.292465, 13.192794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.95, "volume": 45290114, "typical_volume": 46677111.9, "trend": 13.944205, "fair_value": 11.254917, "relative_strength": -28.070064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.549622, "energy": 90.217549, "activity_lines": [ 10.181333, 10.918281, 11.985436, 12.924415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.6, "volume": 83983355, "typical_volume": 46978492.25, "trend": 13.800205, "fair_value": 11.246489, "relative_strength": -26.046785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.901206, "energy": 88.5749, "activity_lines": [ 9.912667, 10.560662, 11.674264, 12.644144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.27, "volume": 62956283, "typical_volume": 45554127.5, "trend": 13.598205, "fair_value": 11.227714, "relative_strength": -29.203072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.370589, "energy": 84.084281, "activity_lines": [ 9.643333, 10.218335, 11.36133, 12.351872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.34, "volume": 73932698, "typical_volume": 46422603.05, "trend": 13.467205, "fair_value": 11.21758, "relative_strength": -21.16708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.445322, "energy": 64.304293, "activity_lines": [ 9.836, 10.135803, 11.178824, 12.141666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.48, "volume": 56074779, "typical_volume": 46974819.0, "trend": 13.357538, "fair_value": 11.200419, "relative_strength": -22.048948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.237369, "energy": 57.14017, "activity_lines": [ 10.048, 10.110098, 11.030319, 11.948943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }