{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efd91c1b-2c18-4fbc-a0c5-f8837ea107b1", "symbol": "301086", "name": "Shenzhen hongfuhan Technology Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.871, "architecture_energy": 39.145, "architecture_maturity": 60.405, "architecture_confidence": 49.786, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.34, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 17.97, "deceleration": 72.61, "rotation_down": 66.42, "downward_expansion": 42.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.518001, 139.605274, 148.597351, 139.496134 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 118.860001, "trend_reference": 125.601195, "distance_from_trend": -0.053671, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.164748, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.27855, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 22.708198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.216769, "excess_performance": 0.209369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053671, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.296535, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.27855, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.311382, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.227082, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.728005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216769, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.688861, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22748784, "relative_activity": 1.606694, "balance": 0.688861, "dry_up": 1.641195, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.261936, "annualized_volatility": 0.872919, "from_high_reference": -0.45532, "from_low_reference": 2.586803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.601195, "fair_value_reference": 52.164748, "structural_low": 79.002018, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.064391, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006511, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.38105, "worst_return": -0.049357, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.653834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.594467, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.455052, "worst_return": -0.147383, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.017786, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.091844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.017786, "worst_return": -0.017786, "sufficient": false }, { 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45.177452, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.968849, "energy": 27.603826, "activity_lines": [ 166.360004, 171.314784, 158.412424, 142.663726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 110.010002, "volume": 28461959, "typical_volume": 13187774.1, "trend": 123.855141, "fair_value": 51.246373, "relative_strength": 21.132362, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.724662, "energy": 18.807447, "activity_lines": [ 142.902003, 160.064687, 155.487731, 141.856705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.699997, "volume": 21552045, "typical_volume": 13586743.85, "trend": 124.29371, "fair_value": 51.610655, "relative_strength": 2.3916, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.741523, "energy": 43.288356, "activity_lines": [ 120.540001, 146.695092, 150.805716, 139.846696 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 118.860001, "volume": 22748784, "typical_volume": 14158754.5, "trend": 125.601195, "fair_value": 52.164748, "relative_strength": 22.708198, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.871293, "energy": 39.144815, "activity_lines": [ 114.518001, 139.605274, 148.597351, 139.496134 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }