{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efdf5a88-86e6-456e-99c7-c76cec9bb136", "symbol": "NHTC", "name": "Natural Health Trend", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.265, "architecture_energy": 55.815, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.544, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 26.46, "upward_expansion": 9.76, "deceleration": 60.85, "rotation_down": 50.56, "downward_expansion": 80.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.77, 1.799455, 2.107682, 2.335572 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.72, "trend_reference": 2.660353, "distance_from_trend": -0.353469, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.844658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.552626, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.794556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.522161, "excess_performance": -0.709615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.353469, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118591, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.552626, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.507946, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.522161, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.61713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 455609, "relative_activity": 2.498967, "balance": 0.61713, "dry_up": 1.150075, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18373, "annualized_volatility": 0.515732, "from_high_reference": -0.601178, "from_low_reference": 0.146667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.660353, "fair_value_reference": 3.844658, "structural_low": 1.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.019276, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.034575, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.273459, "worst_return": -0.287234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.116762, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.099952, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.332947, "worst_return": -0.42685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.041921, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076417, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.547695, "worst_return": -0.275296, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-49.420664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.735472, "energy": 87.156293, "activity_lines": [ 1.809333, 2.050836, 2.379506, 2.589368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.905, "volume": 99701, "typical_volume": 164264.65, "trend": 2.789271, "fair_value": 3.882304, "relative_strength": -46.281384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.819268, "energy": 72.354505, "activity_lines": [ 1.836667, 1.980727, 2.314257, 2.529785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.8, "volume": 101707, "typical_volume": 164232.25, "trend": 2.745263, "fair_value": 3.869871, "relative_strength": -47.567174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.399455, "energy": 63.04435, "activity_lines": [ 1.836, 1.911455, 2.244688, 2.465962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.71, "volume": 181705, "typical_volume": 168673.2, "trend": 2.705774, "fair_value": 3.856737, "relative_strength": -49.564057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.420315, "energy": 61.330998, "activity_lines": [ 1.806667, 1.844364, 2.172681, 2.39917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.72, "volume": 455609, "typical_volume": 182318.9, "trend": 2.660353, "fair_value": 3.844658, "relative_strength": -50.794556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.265229, "energy": 55.814564, "activity_lines": [ 1.77, 1.799455, 2.107682, 2.335572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }