{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efe528cd-deb9-4ed6-b349-68ac2a8c1946", "symbol": "MEK", "name": "Meeka Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.282, "architecture_energy": 57.669, "architecture_maturity": 83.917, "architecture_confidence": 88.858, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.37, "rotation_up": 26.74, "upward_expansion": 9.81, "deceleration": 59.39, "rotation_down": 51.82, "downward_expansion": 80.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0976, 0.100582, 0.1107, 0.127553 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.105, "trend_reference": 0.1564, "distance_from_trend": -0.328645, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.110054, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045927, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.138125, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.487805, "excess_performance": -0.551511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.328645, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238312, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045927, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390051, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.451381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.487805, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.060353, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106113210, "relative_activity": 1.748779, "balance": 1.060353, "dry_up": 1.487297, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158608, "annualized_volatility": 0.691046, "from_high_reference": -0.655738, "from_low_reference": 0.26506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1564, "fair_value_reference": 0.110054, "structural_low": 0.083, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.014907, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.108108, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.098965, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040816, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067862, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162162, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.2, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.276133, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.333333, "worst_return": -0.265306, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.228571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.840909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.37037, 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0.147163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.09, "volume": 66962826, "typical_volume": 68991758.1, "trend": 0.174067, "fair_value": 0.109061, "relative_strength": -51.258099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.961134, "energy": 68.8784, "activity_lines": [ 0.102267, 0.106709, 0.120424, 0.141363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.091, "volume": 128472515, "typical_volume": 72070333.25, "trend": 0.167933, "fair_value": 0.109394, "relative_strength": -50.316348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.264598, "energy": 66.48421, "activity_lines": [ 0.098133, 0.103036, 0.116081, 0.136004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.094, "volume": 59439037, "typical_volume": 67470546.6, "trend": 0.162067, "fair_value": 0.109708, "relative_strength": -49.610237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.112626, "energy": 64.990369, "activity_lines": [ 0.095933, 0.100618, 0.112686, 0.131234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.105, "volume": 106113210, "typical_volume": 60678444.7, "trend": 0.1564, "fair_value": 0.110054, "relative_strength": -45.138125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.28163, "energy": 57.669244, "activity_lines": [ 0.0976, 0.100582, 0.1107, 0.127553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }