{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efe7c62c-0384-4e99-a821-b9f399bdf5bc", "symbol": "QABA", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ ABA COMMUNITY BANK INDEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.357, "architecture_energy": 62.549, "architecture_maturity": 43.326, "architecture_confidence": 76.075, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 71.54, "upward_expansion": 88.45, "deceleration": 53.73, "rotation_down": 17.76, "downward_expansion": 10.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.702833, 67.906074, 65.714072, 64.101631 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 69.0059, "trend_reference": 62.384035, "distance_from_trend": 0.106147, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.679887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335256, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.497851, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084423, "excess_performance": -0.103031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106147, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060206, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335256, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081153, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014979, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101831, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084423, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.262543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33476, "relative_activity": 1.131106, "balance": 1.262543, "dry_up": 1.564453, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034812, "annualized_volatility": 0.194153, "from_high_reference": -0.023409, "from_low_reference": 0.348526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.384035, "fair_value_reference": 51.679887, "structural_low": 55.322296, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.019793, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.00026, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.167122, "worst_return": -0.095171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.0043, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.004095, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.120798, "worst_return": -0.153357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037109, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.04076, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.137359, "worst_return": -0.368281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.959954, "energy": 80.035106, "activity_lines": [ 68.0346, 66.7658, 64.552502, 63.171629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.0203, "volume": 58799, "typical_volume": 28911.85, "trend": 62.018366, "fair_value": 51.506853, "relative_strength": 6.770045, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.673504, "energy": 71.207995, "activity_lines": [ 68.425073, 67.403123, 65.163991, 63.650823 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.0059, "volume": 33476, "typical_volume": 29595.8, "trend": 62.384035, "fair_value": 51.679887, "relative_strength": 1.497851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.35711, "energy": 62.548573, "activity_lines": [ 68.702833, 67.906074, 65.714072, 64.101631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }