{ "ticker": { "uuid": "efefb21c-56a8-418c-9e1d-f24a8cb6d3fa", "symbol": "CPLS", "name": "CIBC Core Plus Fixed Income Pool ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.248, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.881, "architecture_energy": 19.558, "architecture_maturity": 43.742, "architecture_confidence": 70.42, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.93, "rotation_up": 26.25, "upward_expansion": 56.63, "deceleration": 87.55, "rotation_down": 32.17, "downward_expansion": 20.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.774695, 17.792518, 17.771393, 17.750323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.77, "trend_reference": 17.738026, "distance_from_trend": 0.001803, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.754381, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.617349, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001385, "excess_performance": -0.119036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001803, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003788, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060618, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106173, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00074, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001385, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.101952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1400, "relative_activity": 0.200429, "balance": 0.101952, "dry_up": 0.382963, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004369, "annualized_volatility": 0.034139, "from_high_reference": -0.007258, "from_low_reference": 0.033123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.738026, "fair_value_reference": 16.754381, "structural_low": 17.478361, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007658, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.013603, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.017271, "worst_return": -0.006077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01141, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.014176, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.028189, "worst_return": -0.001619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020775, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039605, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.045031, "worst_return": 0.012723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056453, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051465, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.073314, "worst_return": 0.048578, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032711, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01327, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.026143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001814, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004509, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008612, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003365, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.150578, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 2895.0, "trend": 15.255553, "fair_value": 15.59299, "relative_strength": 1.13356, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.377586, "energy": 59.985675, "activity_lines": [ 17.826491, 17.806855, 17.751629, 17.738547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.779922, "volume": 6100, "typical_volume": 9445.0, "trend": 17.722201, "fair_value": 16.706431, "relative_strength": -8.958874, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.302949, "energy": 36.464256, "activity_lines": [ 17.80983, 17.808387, 17.757349, 17.742731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.700235, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 7575.0, "trend": 17.726347, "fair_value": 16.721707, "relative_strength": -9.254793, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.178113, "energy": 15.244336, "activity_lines": [ 17.767302, 17.793217, 17.755971, 17.741313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.83, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 7140.0, "trend": 17.734003, "fair_value": 16.737983, "relative_strength": -7.803757, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.91651, "energy": 23.906279, "activity_lines": [ 17.781341, 17.799794, 17.767118, 17.748001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.77, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 6985.0, "trend": 17.738026, "fair_value": 16.754381, "relative_strength": -10.617349, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.88076, "energy": 19.558499, "activity_lines": [ 17.774695, 17.792518, 17.771393, 17.750323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }