{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eff53cbd-44ff-46df-95df-9b45427818c6", "symbol": "FDD", "name": "FIRST TRUST STOXX EUROPEAN SELECT DIVIDEND INDEX FUND", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.801, "architecture_energy": 89.002, "architecture_maturity": 40.155, "architecture_confidence": 73.297, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.21, "rotation_up": 83.63, "upward_expansion": 95.27, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 8.61, "downward_expansion": 19.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.879367, 19.447585, 19.149193, 18.887415 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.4931, "trend_reference": 18.597272, "distance_from_trend": 0.101941, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.477144, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.520582, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.898227, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.104493, "excess_performance": -0.021132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101941, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.520582, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035912, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038982, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024783, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104493, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.372068, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1369743, "relative_activity": 1.882171, "balance": 2.372068, "dry_up": 1.122808, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027336, "annualized_volatility": 0.188705, "from_high_reference": -0.002283, "from_low_reference": 0.338669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.597272, "fair_value_reference": 13.477144, "structural_low": 17.059597, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.010884, "positive_rate": 0.633333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.000906, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.175708, "worst_return": -0.09331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.040805, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.044556, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.12547, "worst_return": -0.041745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001579, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052536, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.193957, "worst_return": -0.022797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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18.819949, 18.67784, 18.526181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.23, "volume": 648146, "typical_volume": 821830.5, "trend": 18.357278, "fair_value": 13.285652, "relative_strength": 1.885957, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.613577, "energy": 29.855016, "activity_lines": [ 18.909037, 18.89094, 18.75161, 18.586939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.33, "volume": 633115, "typical_volume": 742745.1, "trend": 18.419672, "fair_value": 13.344045, "relative_strength": 2.904837, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.492526, "energy": 50.809107, "activity_lines": [ 19.073667, 18.973471, 18.832255, 18.649695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.11, "volume": 617474, "typical_volume": 708009.5, "trend": 18.498765, "fair_value": 13.409201, "relative_strength": 5.677533, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.618853, "energy": 76.373041, "activity_lines": [ 19.465333, 19.185126, 18.97927, 18.758748 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.4931, "volume": 1369743, "typical_volume": 727746.35, "trend": 18.597272, "fair_value": 13.477144, "relative_strength": 3.898227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.800614, "energy": 89.001727, "activity_lines": [ 19.879367, 19.447585, 19.149193, 18.887415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }