{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eff955f9-2b57-403b-9b53-959bcb5e3713", "symbol": "000526", "name": "Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.331, "architecture_energy": 37.38, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.756, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.54, "rotation_up": 66.29, "upward_expansion": 37.2, "deceleration": 44.33, "rotation_down": 16.71, "downward_expansion": 23.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.146666, 30.591818, 30.384333, 31.287806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.299999, "trend_reference": 33.080666, "distance_from_trend": 0.067089, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.992244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.317333, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072273, "excess_performance": -0.079673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067089, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090299, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21542, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010549, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103173, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.236878, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.18267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31701428, "relative_activity": 2.323439, "balance": 1.18267, "dry_up": 2.132008, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090761, "annualized_volatility": 0.497279, "from_high_reference": -0.379613, "from_low_reference": 0.443763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.080666, "fair_value_reference": 44.992244, "structural_low": 24.450001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.031022, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.020773, "regime_survival": 0.941176, "best_return": 0.29461, "worst_return": -0.284082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.13165, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.118219, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.3813, "worst_return": -0.220779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.192108, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.211687, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.338689, "worst_return": 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27.173818, 29.330904, 31.078387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.48, "volume": 38225904, "typical_volume": 11028960.0, "trend": 33.326667, "fair_value": 44.901026, "relative_strength": -16.829514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.125441, "energy": 20.100041, "activity_lines": [ 28.806666, 27.961818, 29.487285, 31.009613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.549999, "volume": 31506831, "typical_volume": 12355032.65, "trend": 33.211333, "fair_value": 44.952628, "relative_strength": -6.430044, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.063597, "energy": 19.140088, "activity_lines": [ 31.383333, 29.337272, 29.948904, 31.153054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.299999, "volume": 31701428, "typical_volume": 13644185.75, "trend": 33.080666, "fair_value": 44.992244, "relative_strength": -10.317333, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.330613, "energy": 37.379751, "activity_lines": [ 33.146666, 30.591818, 30.384333, 31.287806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }