{ "ticker": { "uuid": "effc2d9b-9da0-4175-b125-ec4b4f586c5b", "symbol": "300489", "name": "Optics Technology Holding Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.477, "architecture_energy": 31.12, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.236, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.59, "rotation_up": 29.41, "upward_expansion": 59.78, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 33.36, "downward_expansion": 23.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 195.737333, 211.499817, 184.101142, 153.556042 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 240.0, "trend_reference": 115.906333, "distance_from_trend": 1.070638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.7575, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.728365, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 181.027088, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 4.586592, "excess_performance": 4.579193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 1.070638, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.897543, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.728365, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.563346, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.810271, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.882782, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 4.586592, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.544011, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84946181, "relative_activity": 1.715713, "balance": 1.544011, "dry_up": 1.275925, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.21559, "annualized_volatility": 1.345312, "from_high_reference": -0.172414, "from_low_reference": 5.139678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.906333, "fair_value_reference": 50.7575, "structural_low": 40.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.060918, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.017608, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.134669, "worst_return": -0.209092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.119911, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.087418, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.007353, "worst_return": -0.165407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.250879, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.174354, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.236275, "worst_return": -0.265484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.226834, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075325, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107463, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010774, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035051, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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67.219348, "energy": 87.887582, "activity_lines": [ 257.678663, 216.127634, 163.29376, 131.954085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 191.029999, "volume": 54511949, "typical_volume": 42525699.7, "trend": 102.148999, "fair_value": 47.636474, "relative_strength": 157.683223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.496492, "energy": 66.956253, "activity_lines": [ 240.80533, 217.180725, 169.78138, 138.001504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 179.0, "volume": 57108874, "typical_volume": 44454836.85, "trend": 106.655999, "fair_value": 48.610256, "relative_strength": 132.53806, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.797991, "energy": 55.59965, "activity_lines": [ 218.043998, 214.667816, 174.421808, 142.959633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 140.5, "volume": 56120850, "typical_volume": 46110907.75, "trend": 109.599666, "fair_value": 49.359615, "relative_strength": 80.986781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.037172, "energy": 25.563804, "activity_lines": [ 185.549333, 204.088362, 174.75438, 145.143117 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 240.0, "volume": 84946181, "typical_volume": 49510709.75, "trend": 115.906333, "fair_value": 50.7575, "relative_strength": 181.027088, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.477393, "energy": 31.119959, "activity_lines": [ 195.737333, 211.499817, 184.101142, 153.556042 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }