{ "ticker": { "uuid": "effccdc5-5d63-4f52-885b-71a585b9d7fe", "symbol": "301062", "name": "Shanghai Ailu Package Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.507, "architecture_energy": 44.002, "architecture_maturity": 89.058, "architecture_confidence": 61.071, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.35, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 19.2, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 42.52, "downward_expansion": 69.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.060667, 6.012303, 6.462051, 6.996728 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.41, "trend_reference": 7.745327, "distance_from_trend": -0.172404, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.378266, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.316505, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.00447, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.372798, "excess_performance": -0.380198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172404, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081662, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.316505, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029462, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.372798, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.070726, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44913304, "relative_activity": 1.28597, "balance": 1.070726, "dry_up": 1.600061, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09626, "annualized_volatility": 0.362713, "from_high_reference": -0.394712, "from_low_reference": 0.195896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.745327, "fair_value_reference": 9.378266, "structural_low": 5.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.037944, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.032331, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.240291, "worst_return": -0.174004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021964, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.371501, "worst_return": -0.09411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.120475, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.344782, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.356276, "worst_return": -0.206679, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 34830947.55, "trend": 7.96166, "fair_value": 9.462169, "relative_strength": -27.442552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.015156, "energy": 65.503419, "activity_lines": [ 5.907333, 6.131275, 6.787143, 7.355394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.53, "volume": 51822848, "typical_volume": 34348514.25, "trend": 7.881327, "fair_value": 9.429356, "relative_strength": -32.429894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.355143, "energy": 67.947339, "activity_lines": [ 5.769333, 5.964393, 6.616573, 7.198512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.15, "volume": 38924638, "typical_volume": 34227700.95, "trend": 7.806327, "fair_value": 9.402978, "relative_strength": -22.956644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.647348, "energy": 58.829195, "activity_lines": [ 5.880667, 5.953437, 6.520764, 7.086814 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.41, "volume": 44913304, "typical_volume": 34925617.6, "trend": 7.745327, "fair_value": 9.378266, "relative_strength": -23.00447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.506977, "energy": 44.001696, "activity_lines": [ 6.060667, 6.012303, 6.462051, 6.996728 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }