{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f000d23c-0de7-4a0f-8a83-623b97dc5c8a", "symbol": "UEVM", "name": "VICTORYSHARES EMERGING MARKETS VALUE MOMENTUM ETF FORMERLY VICTORYSHARES USAA MSCI EMERGING MARKETS VALUE MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.45, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.231, "architecture_energy": 17.113, "architecture_maturity": 18.694, "architecture_confidence": 61.555, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.19, "rotation_up": 48.53, "upward_expansion": 36.4, "deceleration": 38.17, "rotation_down": 22.79, "downward_expansion": 18.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.371941, 58.87038, 59.064652, 58.998595 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 60.285, "trend_reference": 59.002765, "distance_from_trend": 0.021732, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.155645, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.999003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008364, "excess_performance": -0.17909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021732, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016427, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251878, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007485, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008364, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.894896, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4817, "relative_activity": 0.18324, "balance": 0.894896, "dry_up": 0.42434, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026246, "annualized_volatility": 0.170813, "from_high_reference": -0.022977, "from_low_reference": 0.154497 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.002765, "fair_value_reference": 48.155645, "structural_low": 55.657911, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00037, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.003631, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.047796, "worst_return": -0.057747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005393, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.050889, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.107928, "worst_return": -0.084238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007114, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.017807, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.164492, "worst_return": -0.139198, "sufficient": false 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58.127028, 58.703616, 58.955754, 58.902139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 58.627519, "volume": 31733, "typical_volume": 28989.0, "trend": 58.632076, "fair_value": 47.624493, "relative_strength": -11.380866, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.735498, "energy": 20.533203, "activity_lines": [ 58.220627, 58.601375, 58.928542, 58.909506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.867382, "volume": 12683, "typical_volume": 28569.1, "trend": 58.718091, "fair_value": 47.752328, "relative_strength": -8.573232, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.391671, "energy": 36.348108, "activity_lines": [ 58.01259, 58.390068, 58.841055, 58.860171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.397631, "volume": 7310, "typical_volume": 27422.4, "trend": 58.800735, "fair_value": 47.873661, "relative_strength": -6.09664, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.12509, "energy": 28.364439, "activity_lines": [ 58.107056, 58.339078, 58.81796, 58.839496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.899736, "volume": 19810, "typical_volume": 27045.4, "trend": 58.917976, "fair_value": 48.011751, "relative_strength": -4.100933, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.93819, "energy": 7.261346, "activity_lines": [ 58.752313, 58.5748, 58.930904, 58.9104 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.285, "volume": 4817, "typical_volume": 26287.9, "trend": 59.002765, "fair_value": 48.155645, "relative_strength": -7.999003, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.231329, "energy": 17.113276, "activity_lines": [ 59.371941, 58.87038, 59.064652, 58.998595 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }