{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0094918-b9ff-4931-afb3-654fc7e00368", "symbol": "TC", "name": "Tucows Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.609, "architecture_energy": 25.433, "architecture_maturity": 86.157, "architecture_confidence": 70.935, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.39, "rotation_up": 31.47, "upward_expansion": 19.9, "deceleration": 61.31, "rotation_down": 37.51, "downward_expansion": 67.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.432666, 17.993636, 18.917667, 20.067333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.719999, "trend_reference": 22.304, "distance_from_trend": -0.026184, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.247372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172489, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.279708, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.247662, "excess_performance": -0.368083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153409, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172489, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067587, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077507, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247662, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.396046, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30300, "relative_activity": 2.045915, "balance": 0.396046, "dry_up": 2.781904, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110108, "annualized_volatility": 0.987606, "from_high_reference": -0.374964, "from_low_reference": 0.81 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.304, "fair_value_reference": 26.247372, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.019624, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.00547, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.293957, "worst_return": -0.380424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003076, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022011, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.319122, "worst_return": -0.262553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.094962, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.121005, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.137365, "worst_return": -0.411974, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.197967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037078, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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25.359333, "fair_value": 27.069167, "relative_strength": -35.874475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.926684, "energy": 75.933117, "activity_lines": [ 19.201333, 19.953818, 21.14881, 22.930065 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 19.82, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 8285.0, "trend": 25.003333, "fair_value": 26.961667, "relative_strength": -31.635257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.915704, "energy": 61.009878, "activity_lines": [ 19.281333, 19.781455, 20.907857, 22.572688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.790001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7570.0, "trend": 24.675667, "fair_value": 26.820128, "relative_strength": -34.960445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.49707, "energy": 59.053462, "activity_lines": [ 19.070667, 19.498182, 20.611905, 22.171828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.25, "volume": 32800, "typical_volume": 8635.0, "trend": 24.177333, "fair_value": 26.665128, "relative_strength": -46.402963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.755902, "energy": 72.68028, "activity_lines": [ 17.811334, 18.644182, 20.011429, 21.563721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.44, "volume": 32100, "typical_volume": 9735.0, "trend": 23.575333, "fair_value": 26.521859, "relative_strength": -48.357543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.147061, "energy": 89.353, "activity_lines": [ 16.532, 17.759091, 19.376667, 20.935505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.28, "volume": 49100, "typical_volume": 11880.0, "trend": 22.946333, "fair_value": 26.353846, "relative_strength": -55.482915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.934309, "energy": 96.600662, "activity_lines": [ 14.820667, 16.604182, 18.585953, 20.206774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.73, "volume": 53300, "typical_volume": 13730.0, "trend": 22.665, "fair_value": 26.284936, "relative_strength": -20.460197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.823175, "energy": 48.64676, "activity_lines": [ 16.692, 17.31, 18.751857, 20.128301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.719999, "volume": 30300, "typical_volume": 14810.0, "trend": 22.304, "fair_value": 26.247372, "relative_strength": -22.279708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.608993, "energy": 25.433403, "activity_lines": [ 18.432666, 17.993636, 18.917667, 20.067333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }