{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f00e6e93-9a00-4154-89a1-1c900abefc33", "symbol": "6199", "name": "TienPin United Enterprise CO., LTD.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.466, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.161, "architecture_energy": 8.121, "architecture_maturity": 21.944, "architecture_confidence": 49.177, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.64, "rotation_up": 29.14, "upward_expansion": 15.95, "deceleration": 53.98, "rotation_down": 36.56, "downward_expansion": 36.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.046666, 100.416363, 99.357619, 99.697204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 99.199997, "trend_reference": 100.383333, "distance_from_trend": -0.011788, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 74.079167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339108, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.76443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.031185, "excess_performance": -0.410187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011788, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339108, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107096, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061837, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031185, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.957562, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2383296, "relative_activity": 0.759044, "balance": 0.957562, "dry_up": 0.821577, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095766, "annualized_volatility": 0.391974, "from_high_reference": -0.231008, "from_low_reference": 0.263694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.383333, "fair_value_reference": 74.079167, "structural_low": 87.099998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.019203, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.007761, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.829222, "worst_return": -0.174797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010929, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.053653, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 1.072106, "worst_return": -0.220325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.131349, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014065, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 3.933586, "worst_return": -0.156951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.603825, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.621234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.908918, "worst_return": 0.454545, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.373373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.472222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.301887, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00463, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113004, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043902, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.253659, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201335, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100935, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": 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100.20043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 99.900002, "volume": 3899000, "typical_volume": 3033379.4, "trend": 101.043333, "fair_value": 73.053526, "relative_strength": -26.818325, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.483084, "energy": 8.603388, "activity_lines": [ 101.866667, 101.096364, 99.920952, 100.115699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.0, "volume": 2048000, "typical_volume": 3085323.05, "trend": 100.643333, "fair_value": 73.556731, "relative_strength": -30.540596, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.930443, "energy": 15.964589, "activity_lines": [ 99.606667, 100.510909, 99.469048, 99.790323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 99.199997, "volume": 2383296, "typical_volume": 3139863.9, "trend": 100.383333, "fair_value": 74.079167, "relative_strength": -29.76443, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.160756, "energy": 8.120504, "activity_lines": [ 99.046666, 100.416363, 99.357619, 99.697204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }