{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f00e78f1-1866-4866-930b-307533ba0a82", "symbol": "RIFI", "name": "Russell Investments Fixed Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 62.168, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.936, "architecture_energy": 57.023, "architecture_maturity": 2.456, "architecture_confidence": 77.452, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.84, "rotation_up": 16.11, "upward_expansion": 18.7, "deceleration": 45.21, "rotation_down": 72.5, "downward_expansion": 60.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.540201, 17.602892, 17.633082, 17.627262 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.530001, "trend_reference": 17.63059, "distance_from_trend": -0.005705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.842363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.528013, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008089, "excess_performance": -0.12851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040828, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11528, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006876, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.592456, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1700, "relative_activity": 0.349065, "balance": 0.592456, "dry_up": 0.892272, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005171, "annualized_volatility": 0.036935, "from_high_reference": -0.018996, "from_low_reference": 0.02516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.63059, "fair_value_reference": 16.842363, "structural_low": 17.392863, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003629, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019769, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.00751, "worst_return": -0.01992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003382, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042924, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019271, "worst_return": -0.024292, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.01435, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074182, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047557, "worst_return": -0.076256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.974016, "energy": 30.825539, "activity_lines": [ 17.591917, 17.661744, 17.64878, 17.640386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.530001, "volume": 1394, "typical_volume": 5268.75, "trend": 17.631777, "fair_value": 16.829388, "relative_strength": -9.074482, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.361019, "energy": 37.554428, "activity_lines": [ 17.558378, 17.631136, 17.641113, 17.633828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.530001, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 4870.15, "trend": 17.63059, "fair_value": 16.842363, "relative_strength": -11.528013, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.936317, "energy": 57.022707, "activity_lines": [ 17.540201, 17.602892, 17.633082, 17.627262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }