{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f00fa462-00ab-4de3-aff1-a3bd4b25c465", "symbol": "300183", "name": "Qingdao Eastsoft Communication Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.175, "architecture_energy": 61.354, "architecture_maturity": 83.455, "architecture_confidence": 95.687, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 28.45, "upward_expansion": 11.79, "deceleration": 57.83, "rotation_down": 53.02, "downward_expansion": 85.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.216667, 10.279091, 11.164059, 12.093935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.58, "trend_reference": 13.332654, "distance_from_trend": -0.20646, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.695565, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.280055, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.467378, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.343009, "excess_performance": -0.350409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20646, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106131, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.280055, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009371, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.343009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573272, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22595550, "relative_activity": 0.758333, "balance": 0.573272, "dry_up": 1.039832, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082114, "annualized_volatility": 0.387803, "from_high_reference": -0.461641, "from_low_reference": 0.174251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.332654, "fair_value_reference": 14.695565, "structural_low": 9.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.018719, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": 0.007589, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.228845, "worst_return": -0.17671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.081111, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011394, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.526269, "worst_return": -0.313333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048561, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000521, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.377432, "worst_return": -0.245534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-74.865316, "energy": 86.181293, "activity_lines": [ 10.394667, 11.015258, 12.154565, 13.025377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.59, "volume": 32707660, "typical_volume": 30288483.05, "trend": 13.781078, "fair_value": 14.792327, "relative_strength": -37.025708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.450596, "energy": 87.597425, "activity_lines": [ 10.084, 10.640995, 11.81296, 12.743965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.84, "volume": 42494486, "typical_volume": 30394322.5, "trend": 13.620269, "fair_value": 14.754518, "relative_strength": -34.726171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.609603, "energy": 84.124549, "activity_lines": [ 9.933333, 10.385545, 11.527848, 12.489702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.38, "volume": 26134965, "typical_volume": 29945737.25, "trend": 13.474127, "fair_value": 14.72156, "relative_strength": -29.165556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.908295, "energy": 66.534719, "activity_lines": [ 10.050667, 10.290909, 11.322993, 12.280653 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.58, "volume": 22595550, "typical_volume": 29796323.3, "trend": 13.332654, "fair_value": 14.695565, "relative_strength": -30.467378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.174603, "energy": 61.353532, "activity_lines": [ 10.216667, 10.279091, 11.164059, 12.093935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }