{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f019bb19-ae31-4133-802b-2d04e4bd3ef2",
    "symbol": "SGLE",
    "name": "Invesco Physical Gold ETC EUR Hedged",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 88.97,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -52.651,
    "architecture_energy": 49.167,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.569,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.203,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 21.64,
        "rotation_up": 26.42,
        "upward_expansion": 19.86,
        "deceleration": 66.69,
        "rotation_down": 48.99,
        "downward_expansion": 72.2
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        93.184667,
        92.957637,
        96.247,
        99.549183
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 97.620003,
    "trend_reference": 103.793,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.059474,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 72.994038,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33737,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -15.217668,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.132421,
    "excess_performance": -0.303313,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.059474,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012661,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.33737,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.205277,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.152177,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.151337,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.132421,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.467618,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 100152,
      "relative_activity": 1.755864,
      "balance": 0.467618,
      "dry_up": 2.411306,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.039336,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.235314,
      "from_high_reference": -0.2283,
      "from_low_reference": 0.271591
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 103.793,
      "fair_value_reference": 72.994038,
      "structural_low": 88.93,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.003811,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007337,
        "regime_survival": 0.777778,
        "best_return": 0.062128,
        "worst_return": -0.036823,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.04935,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001836,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.06556,
        "worst_return": -0.034526,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.068638,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.096873,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.108506,
        "worst_return": 0.028771,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.18546,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.033273,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.305479,
        "worst_return": 0.065441,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-10-27",
        "end": "2023-11-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004994,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-11-10",
        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.031901,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-15",
        "end": "2024-01-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011681,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.066272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.061923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.033968,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.114734,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.039727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
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        "return": 0.180856,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007586,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
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        "return": 0.340683,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "end": "2026-05-22",
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        "return": -0.007399,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 112393.35,
        "trend": 103.884,
        "fair_value": 68.639199,
        "relative_strength": 0.397575,
        "stage": 2,
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 105822.6,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 71.258846,
        "relative_strength": -17.141841,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "energy": 92.414972,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 52193.1,
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        "fair_value": 71.557083,
        "relative_strength": -17.785928,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 53161.1,
        "trend": 104.908666,
        "fair_value": 71.840737,
        "relative_strength": -18.714191,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.070807,
        "energy": 88.217396,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 258641,
        "typical_volume": 63052.85,
        "trend": 104.596666,
        "fair_value": 72.111218,
        "relative_strength": -19.25353,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.011689,
        "energy": 88.833612,
        "activity_lines": [
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          101.678323
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 91.489998,
        "volume": 89969,
        "typical_volume": 59922.1,
        "trend": 104.243333,
        "fair_value": 72.39032,
        "relative_strength": -17.804679,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.347994,
        "energy": 73.11934,
        "activity_lines": [
          91.582,
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          97.407762,
          100.832731
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 90.699997,
        "volume": 101388,
        "typical_volume": 62404.25,
        "trend": 103.971666,
        "fair_value": 72.667981,
        "relative_strength": -18.946552,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.03676,
        "energy": 65.835928,
        "activity_lines": [
          91.191999,
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          96.440952,
          99.958968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 97.620003,
        "volume": 100152,
        "typical_volume": 57038.6,
        "trend": 103.793,
        "fair_value": 72.994038,
        "relative_strength": -15.217668,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.650656,
        "energy": 49.167125,
        "activity_lines": [
          93.184667,
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          96.247,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}