{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f01c2d86-0fa1-48fc-85cb-67bc9ed6f7bc", "symbol": "RIOT", "name": "Riot Platforms, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.602, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.218, "architecture_energy": 16.636, "architecture_maturity": 54.306, "architecture_confidence": 93.303, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.52, "rotation_up": 16.22, "upward_expansion": 40.99, "deceleration": 87.01, "rotation_down": 41.51, "downward_expansion": 34.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.557, 21.956182, 22.596857, 21.188151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.52, "trend_reference": 19.478667, "distance_from_trend": 0.05346, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.111891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.564992, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.038211, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.420069, "excess_performance": 0.232616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05346, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1703, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.564992, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.392089, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010382, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357395, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.420069, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.11422, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91760489, "relative_activity": 1.082238, "balance": 1.11422, "dry_up": 1.099396, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217341, "annualized_volatility": 0.82734, "from_high_reference": -0.323219, "from_low_reference": 0.858696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.478667, "fair_value_reference": 13.111891, "structural_low": 11.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025327, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.033684, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.554992, "worst_return": -0.152355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063844, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.105123, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.247283, "worst_return": -0.411667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.060498, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175918, "worst_return": -0.235504, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.524768, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.147112, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.206448, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.290824, "active": false }, { "regime": 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16.566033, "energy": 19.684933, "activity_lines": [ 21.782, 23.677182, 22.506333, 20.800559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.53, "volume": 103800973, "typical_volume": 83412601.35, "trend": 19.105, "fair_value": 13.058365, "relative_strength": 18.717775, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.529481, "energy": 25.366053, "activity_lines": [ 21.425, 23.330545, 22.711524, 21.041075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.17, "volume": 100171993, "typical_volume": 84205742.3, "trend": 19.305333, "fair_value": 13.077981, "relative_strength": 5.021956, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.210862, "energy": 18.459082, "activity_lines": [ 20.652667, 22.572273, 22.652119, 21.109785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.52, "volume": 91760489, "typical_volume": 84787713.35, "trend": 19.478667, "fair_value": 13.111891, "relative_strength": 1.038211, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.217545, "energy": 16.636357, "activity_lines": [ 20.557, 21.956182, 22.596857, 21.188151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }