{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f01da6d1-9922-49cf-b555-5ab2f6f13e4a", "symbol": "AX", "name": "Axos Financial Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.58, "architecture_energy": 63.125, "architecture_maturity": 12.969, "architecture_confidence": 77.747, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.77, "rotation_up": 69.88, "upward_expansion": 88.49, "deceleration": 44.88, "rotation_down": 12.54, "downward_expansion": 12.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.319333, 97.597091, 94.075524, 92.659828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 100.04, "trend_reference": 92.023667, "distance_from_trend": 0.087112, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.169167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.425697, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.039622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009603, "excess_performance": -0.135228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087112, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040419, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.425697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105719, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000396, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092471, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009603, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.557127, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1574161, "relative_activity": 0.826476, "balance": 1.557127, "dry_up": 0.916014, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056139, "annualized_volatility": 0.324047, "from_high_reference": -0.053906, "from_low_reference": 0.335826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.023667, "fair_value_reference": 70.169167, "structural_low": 81.025, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.029201, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.043085, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.187524, "worst_return": -0.221754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.046533, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.020249, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.248209, "worst_return": -0.220375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054683, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.021472, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.33675, "worst_return": -0.105006, "sufficient": true }, { 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1.664886, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.986736, "energy": 20.775732, "activity_lines": [ 91.12, 89.229636, 88.979619, 89.607785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 97.9, "volume": 1940172, "typical_volume": 1951045.5, "trend": 90.244333, "fair_value": 68.442115, "relative_strength": 1.298482, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.168862, "energy": 39.765007, "activity_lines": [ 93.8, 90.876182, 89.81581, 90.130108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 97.4, "volume": 1871999, "typical_volume": 1979179.15, "trend": 90.643667, "fair_value": 68.79609, "relative_strength": -0.467859, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.013271, "energy": 55.841046, "activity_lines": [ 95.580667, 92.388182, 90.601429, 90.591763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 99.53, "volume": 1764038, "typical_volume": 1969307.05, "trend": 91.044333, "fair_value": 69.151282, "relative_strength": 3.363884, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.12049, "energy": 74.713296, "activity_lines": [ 97.432, 94.105818, 91.589524, 91.165075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 95.83, "volume": 1559431, "typical_volume": 1969528.45, "trend": 91.299667, "fair_value": 69.453333, "relative_strength": 0.179364, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.695025, "energy": 66.82577, "activity_lines": [ 97.433333, 94.922545, 92.164714, 91.473828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.41, "volume": 2081167, "typical_volume": 1974339.95, "trend": 91.767333, "fair_value": 69.81, "relative_strength": 4.886787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.559433, "energy": 72.492305, "activity_lines": [ 98.777333, 96.523818, 93.22519, 92.126108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.04, "volume": 1574161, "typical_volume": 1904665.3, "trend": 92.023667, "fair_value": 70.169167, "relative_strength": 0.039622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.580159, "energy": 63.125112, "activity_lines": [ 99.319333, 97.597091, 94.075524, 92.659828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }