{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f021ba4f-7beb-48e5-8abb-e89262d3d2cc", "symbol": "ALISP", "name": "ISPD Network, S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.581, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.262, "architecture_energy": 63.114, "architecture_maturity": 10.913, "architecture_confidence": 87.988, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.77, "rotation_up": 10.5, "upward_expansion": 13.78, "deceleration": 37.76, "rotation_down": 67.6, "downward_expansion": 87.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.737333, 1.767818, 1.805238, 1.821935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.745, "trend_reference": 1.859167, "distance_from_trend": -0.061407, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.653173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342297, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.13869, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.144608, "excess_performance": -0.197919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061407, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342297, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014368, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073457, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144608, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.589448, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1493, "relative_activity": 0.478986, "balance": 0.589448, "dry_up": 0.494065, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052017, "annualized_volatility": 0.469048, "from_high_reference": -0.206818, "from_low_reference": 0.430328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.859167, "fair_value_reference": 2.653173, "structural_low": 1.34, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.010094, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.013923, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.274725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.021053, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.013779, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.43662, "worst_return": -0.330189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.090505, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.338028, "worst_return": -0.458015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.161497, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.232613, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.073171, "worst_return": -0.383562, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-01-06", "end": "2023-01-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-01-27", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047847, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-03-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.152632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.167939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.26, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014535, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.76, "volume": 252, "typical_volume": 641.0, "trend": 3.990667, "fair_value": 4.415705, "relative_strength": -10.213978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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1.850091, 1.839262, 1.861215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.71, "volume": 754, "typical_volume": 3378.3, "trend": 1.8925, "fair_value": 2.69266, "relative_strength": -10.602912, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.267477, "energy": 58.010236, "activity_lines": [ 1.774333, 1.820273, 1.826429, 1.849505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.72, "volume": 716, "typical_volume": 3277.15, "trend": 1.8845, "fair_value": 2.679455, "relative_strength": -9.986448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.594313, "energy": 65.044578, "activity_lines": [ 1.745667, 1.795727, 1.816119, 1.838376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.755, "volume": 3197, "typical_volume": 3138.9, "trend": 1.870333, "fair_value": 2.666346, "relative_strength": -9.044496, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.290864, "energy": 65.650323, "activity_lines": [ 1.739333, 1.781545, 1.810571, 1.830022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.745, "volume": 1493, "typical_volume": 3117.0, "trend": 1.859167, "fair_value": 2.653173, "relative_strength": -11.13869, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.262435, "energy": 63.114173, "activity_lines": [ 1.737333, 1.767818, 1.805238, 1.821935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }