{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f0225739-a78c-40f9-a4b1-57e48307991a", "symbol": "001209", "name": "Guangdong Hongxing Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.64, "architecture_energy": 61.411, "architecture_maturity": 48.186, "architecture_confidence": 92.635, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 20.09, "upward_expansion": 11.09, "deceleration": 59.06, "rotation_down": 62.34, "downward_expansion": 84.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.926667, 16.270764, 17.826124, 18.88404 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.65, "trend_reference": 20.164842, "distance_from_trend": -0.174305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.219425, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.033069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.665776, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181416, "excess_performance": -0.188816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067583, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.033069, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093804, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181416, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7263945, "relative_activity": 0.665997, "balance": 0.60005, "dry_up": 0.798467, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087371, "annualized_volatility": 0.850938, "from_high_reference": -0.52415, "from_low_reference": 0.175018 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.164842, "fair_value_reference": 17.219425, "structural_low": 14.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003888, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.024699, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.116938, "worst_return": -0.135355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.110542, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.071381, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.723368, "worst_return": -0.143049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.136854, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014096, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.320433, "worst_return": -0.046725, "sufficient": false 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19.799773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.64, "volume": 10993555, "typical_volume": 12534018.7, "trend": 20.464842, "fair_value": 17.222793, "relative_strength": -27.499541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.317717, "energy": 86.927191, "activity_lines": [ 15.682, 16.706294, 18.372412, 19.410493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.96, "volume": 8298102, "typical_volume": 11450098.05, "trend": 20.305175, "fair_value": 17.21981, "relative_strength": -19.346371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.197511, "energy": 66.282878, "activity_lines": [ 15.682667, 16.379857, 18.055482, 19.119858 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.65, "volume": 7263945, "typical_volume": 10906880.3, "trend": 20.164842, "fair_value": 17.219425, "relative_strength": -19.665776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.639805, "energy": 61.411394, "activity_lines": [ 15.926667, 16.270764, 17.826124, 18.88404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }