{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f022e2e6-ff14-4b54-99ac-10c13a648b57", "symbol": "600307", "name": "Gansu Jiu Steel Group Hongxing Iron & Steel Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.328, "architecture_energy": 55.768, "architecture_maturity": 77.53, "architecture_confidence": 85.161, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 29.01, "upward_expansion": 15.15, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 46.94, "downward_expansion": 77.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.438, 1.440545, 1.525143, 1.622796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.45, "trend_reference": 1.728667, "distance_from_trend": -0.161203, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.542244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.529003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.248705, "excess_performance": -0.205501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161203, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039274, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059811, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228181, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14529, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120243, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.248705, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.291644, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 224232914, "relative_activity": 0.652402, "balance": 0.291644, "dry_up": 0.75154, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065252, "annualized_volatility": 0.417381, "from_high_reference": -0.422311, "from_low_reference": 0.066176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.728667, "fair_value_reference": 1.542244, "structural_low": 1.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.004164, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.241667, "worst_return": -0.125581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.009229, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.638655, "worst_return": -0.170103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054878, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.006509, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.281481, "worst_return": -0.194631, "sufficient": true }, { 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1.464, 1.534182, 1.663571, 1.727011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.41, "volume": 237517258, "typical_volume": 542528696.1, "trend": 1.759, "fair_value": 1.545128, "relative_strength": -19.419087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.972247, "energy": 90.509274, "activity_lines": [ 1.434, 1.5, 1.629524, 1.704022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.4, "volume": 283097845, "typical_volume": 519141061.3, "trend": 1.751333, "fair_value": 1.544167, "relative_strength": -14.787831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.989044, "energy": 89.237027, "activity_lines": [ 1.413333, 1.470545, 1.59619, 1.68086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.41, "volume": 284469537, "typical_volume": 509579797.45, "trend": 1.743333, "fair_value": 1.543333, "relative_strength": -15.068637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.491512, "energy": 84.39414, "activity_lines": [ 1.407333, 1.450364, 1.566619, 1.658839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.47, "volume": 241427490, "typical_volume": 461555340.35, "trend": 1.735333, "fair_value": 1.542885, "relative_strength": -11.368995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.690063, "energy": 62.767469, "activity_lines": [ 1.428, 1.445818, 1.545048, 1.641204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.45, "volume": 224232914, "typical_volume": 343703637.1, "trend": 1.728667, "fair_value": 1.542244, "relative_strength": -14.529003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.327923, "energy": 55.767967, "activity_lines": [ 1.438, 1.440545, 1.525143, 1.622796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }